Subscribe
Follow Us
The heavily anticipated UFC debut of Austin Bashi (13-0) will come at UFC Vegas 101 when he faces promotional veteran Christian Rodriguez (11-2). It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Christian Rodriguez-Austin Bashi prediction and pick.
Rodriguez, 27, will fight at featherweight for the third consecutive outing after competing at bantamweight for his previous three contests. While overall impressive at 4-2 in the Octagon, he is coming off a first-round submission loss to Julian Erosa at UFC Denver. The loss ended a four-fight win streak.
Bashi, 23, earned his contract by impressing the UFC on the recent season of Dana White's Contender Series. He submitted Dorian Ramos in the second round of that fight after dominating the entire eight-minute bout. Just four years into his professional MMA career, Bashi is a former IBJJF brown belt no-gi world champion and two-time all-state high school wrestler.
Here are the UFC Vegas 101 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 101 Odds: Christian Rodriguez-Austin Bashi Odds
Christian Rodriguez: +220
Austin Bashi: -270
Over 2.5 rounds: -250
Under 2.5 rounds: +190
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Christian Rodriguez Will Win
Many veteran fighters receive the “prospect killer” moniker, but few have earned it more than Rodriguez. Fighting undefeated opponents is almost a personality trait for Rodriguez at this point, who is responsible for handing Raul Rosas Jr., Cameron Saaiman, and Isaac Dulgarian their first defeats.
Rodriguez's best asset is his fight IQ, as he never enters a matchup without knowing everything he needs to do. Bashi has no breaks and can be frantic at times, looking to get takedowns at any cost. While strong in grappling transitions, he has occasionally struggled to maintain top position and relies on explosion to keep it.
If that sounds familiar, those traits are very similar to those of Rosas Jr., whom Rodriguez beat in 2023 by weathering an early storm and pouring it on his fatigued opponent late. Not only does Rodriguez figure to have the cardio advantage, but he also has looked like the better striker.
Article Continues Below
With experience well beyond his years, it is easy to forget how young and athletic Rodriguez still is. Against an all-gas fighter like Bashi, Rodriguez knows the game plan and has executed it before. The issue will be implementing it against a wrestler as big and strong as Bashi. Rodriguez will almost certainly get taken down in round one, perhaps more than once. Staying composed and returning to his feet will be as key as defending chain takedowns in the second and third rounds as Bashi gasses.
Why Austin Bashi Will Win
It is easy to remember the highlights of Rodriguez's career, given that he has beaten so many previously undefeated fighters. Yet, it is just as easy to forget the circumstances in which those bouts took place. Three of Rodriguez's four UFC wins have been at bantamweight, including two of which he missed weight for.
As a featherweight, Rodriguez is just 1-2 in the UFC, beating Dulgarian but losing to Erosa and Jonathan Pearce. Both Pearce and Dulgarian gave him issues in wrestling exchanges, an area that Bashi is guaranteed to test. Erosa also submitted him after overwhelming him on the feet. It has been evident so far that Rodriguez excelled when he had a clear size advantage over smaller fighters but struggled when that was not the case.
Bashi's biggest concern should be energy management, particularly early in the fight. He has slowed down late in fights before and tends to rush when he is in a good position, a bad habit that veterans often exploit. In all three of Rodriguez's featherweight fights in the UFC, he was taken down in the first round. However, only Erosa managed to finish him. Bashi will find success early, but he cannot fall into the trap that Dulgarian did and gas himself out.
Final Christian Rodriguez-Austin Bashi Prediction & Pick
The odds on Rodriguez are tempting, especially when we've seen this story before. It seems too good to be true to get Rodriguez as a 2-1 underdog against a debuting fighter, but that would be where the caution begins.
If this was a bantamweight fight, Rodriguez would certainly have the edge. Perhaps that would also be true in a five-round fight. However, in a three-round 145-pound bout, Bashi has all the physical edges he needs to win.
Even in his recent win over Dulgarian, Rodriguez was thoroughly controlled on the ground, a trend that continued when the former was visibly spent. Bashi looked great on DWCS and has been a finishing machine of late but only one man has ever claimed a stoppage victory over Rodriguez. Grit and consistency will be the name of the game for Bashi in his debut.
Final Christian Rodriguez-Austin Bashi Prediction & Pick: Austin Bashi by Decision (-110)
