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UFC 312: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Colby Thicknesse and Aleksandre Topuria in the bantamweight division. Topuria is riding a 3-fight winning streak heading into his highly anticipated debut meanwhile, Thicknesse has won all seven of his professional fights coming into his short-notice UFC debut. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Thicknesse-Topuria prediction and pick.
Colby Thicknesse (7-0) is stepping in on short notice for the injured Cody Haddon for the biggest opportunity of his career. He has won all seven of his professional fights and will be looking to extend his unbeaten streak to eight in a row and derail the hype train of Aleksandre Topuria this weekend at UFC 312.
Aleksandre Topuria (5-1) has a ton of hype surrounding him coming into his UFC debut as the younger brother of UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria. Topuria while riding a three-fight winning streak will be looking to make a statement and secure his 6th professional win when he takes on Colby Thicknesse at UFC 312.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Colby Thicknesse-Aleksandre Topuria Odds
Colby Thicknesse: +300
Aleksandre Topuria: -380
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +105
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Why Colby Thicknesse Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Johan Segas – KO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 (2 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Colby Thicknesse’s relentless grappling and tactical precision position him to hand Aleksandre Topuria a debut loss at UFC 312. Thicknesse (7-0), a training partner of Alexander Volkanovski, brings a blend of pressure with technical wrestling to dominate fights. His signature “Thicknesse Twist”—a takedown-to-submission chain—has dismantled regional opponents, while his cardio and adaptability allow him to sustain a high pace, critical against Topuria’s explosive but sporadic offense. Though Topuria (5-1) boasts first-round finishes, his competition has been unproven, with his sole loss coming to a debuting fighter in 2015. Thicknesse’s defensive discipline and Volkanovski’s cornering will help neutralize Topuria’s aggression.
Topuria’s layoff since 2023 and defensive gaps—exposed in sloppy striking exchanges—play into Thicknesse’s strengths. The Australian’s ability to transition from striking flurries to takedowns will exploit Topuria’s tendency to overcommit, forcing him into reactive grappling scenarios where Thicknesse’s rear-naked choke threat shines. While Topuria’s brother Ilia has hyped his potential, Thicknesse’s proven durability and fight IQ—honed against stiffer regional competition—will weather early storms. Expect Thicknesse to grind down Topuria with volume and control, sealing a decision or late submission to extend his unbeaten streak.
Why Aleksandre Topuria Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Johan Segas – KO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 (3 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Aleksandre Topuria’s blend of technical precision and killer instinct positions him to dismantle Colby Thicknesse at UFC 312. Despite a layoff since 2023, Topuria (5-1) has sharpened his skills alongside brother Ilia—UFC featherweight champion—and bantamweight king Merab Dvalishvili, refining a game built on fight-ending strikes and opportunistic submissions. All five of his wins have come inside the distance, including three first-round knockouts, showcasing an ability to overwhelm opponents early. Thicknesse (7-0), though undefeated, steps in on 14 days’ notice and has faced regional-level competition, with critics questioning his readiness for Topuria’s elite striking and fight IQ. Demetrious Johnson’s assessment of Topuria as a potential “contender” underscores his well-rounded threat, while Thicknesse’s reliance on untested grappling and short-notice prep leaves him vulnerable to Topuria’s calculated pressure.
Thicknesse’s ties to Alexander Volkanovski add narrative heat, but Topuria’s corner holds the strategic edge. Ilia’s proven ability to dissect opponents mid-fight—evidenced by his tactical advice leading to Volkanovski’s KO—will guide Aleksandre’s adjustments. Thicknesse’s aggressive wrestling risks playing into Topuria’s submission acumen, particularly if fatigue sets in from early exchanges. With a 5-inch reach advantage and crisp combinations, Topuria can exploit Thicknesse’s defensive gaps on the feet before closing with fight-ending ground strikes or a rear-naked choke. Expect Topuria to cement his arrival with a statement finish, proving the family name carries championship DNA.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Aleksandre Topuria Prediction & Pick
Aleksandre Topuria’s pedigree and finishing instincts position him to overcome Colby Thicknesse’s grappling threat at UFC 312. Despite Thicknesse’s 7-0 record and 57.1% finish rate, the Australian’s short-notice debut and untested competition (regional fighters with losing records) pale against Topuria’s elite training camp alongside brother Ilia and Merab Dvalishvili. The Georgian’s 100% finish rate (3 KOs, 2 subs) and refined striking—honed during a six-year hiatus post-2015 loss—allow him to capitalize on Thicknesse’s defensive gaps, noted for “nervous energy” on the feet. While Thicknesse’s 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and BJJ black belt pose risks, Topuria’s takedown defense and submission threat neutralize this path.
Thicknesse’s ties to Alexander Volkanovski add narrative intrigue, but Topuria’s corner holds strategic mastery. Ilia’s proven fight IQ—evidenced by his KO of Volkanovski—will guide Aleksandre’s adjustments, exploiting Thicknesse’s inexperience in five-round wars. The Georgian’s reach and crisp combinations will dictate exchanges, while Thicknesse’s cardio—untested beyond regional three-rounders—cracks under pressure. Expect Topuria to weather early grappling, batter Thicknesse with volume, and secure a second-round TKO, justifying his -380 odds as the family dynasty expands.
Final Colby Thicknesse-Aleksandre Topuria Prediction & Pick: Aleksandre Topuria (-380), Under 1.5 (+105)
