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The Duke Blue Devils are set to face the Virginia Cavaliers. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Duke Virginia prediction, odds, and pick.
The Duke Blue Devils have lost only four games this season, which really isn't that bad. Yet, when this team defeated Kentucky and Gonzaga early in the season, and when it became apparent how weak the Atlantic Coast Conference was this season, it seemed unlikely that Duke was going to lose more than two games all season long. College basketball odds analysts were ready to anticipate a dominant Duke season, given how great the Blue Devils looked in a convincing performance over a Gonzaga team which will probably be the No. 1 overall seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Yet, when considering a Duke Virginia prediction, you have to realize that Duke hasn't become the juggernaut many observers expected. The Blue Devils lost to Ohio State — which is a mid-tier Big Ten team — shortly after the Gonzaga win. They lost to Florida State. They lost at home to Miami. They also lost to the very Virginia team they are playing again on Wednesday. This team simply hasn't come together the way coach Mike Krzyzewski hoped in what is his final season on the bench in Durham. Coach K is brilliant, and his legacy is secure, but he has not been able to maximize what this team has at its disposal. Duke might get a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Blue Devils will not be a No. 1 seed, and they could fall to No. 3 if they don't win the ACC Tournament in a few weeks.
When thinking about a Duke Virginia pick, also consider the point that Virginia went into Cameron Indoor Stadium and defeated the Blue Devils on a 3-pointer in the final 10 seconds. Virginia made an inbounds pass to the left of Duke's basket. Duke did not defend or follow the inbounder as he flared to the left wing and got a wide-open look for a game-winning score. That's the lack of attention to detail Duke has displayed for much of the season, and it also shows that in a year when Virginia does not have top-shelf talent or elite shooting, coach Tony Bennett can still keep his team competitive with the brand names in the sport such as Duke. The Duke Virginia odds are where they are because Virginia keeps earning respect, even in a down year for the Cavaliers.
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Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Duke-Virginia odds:
College Basketball odds: Duke-Virginia Odds
Duke: -5 (-114)
Virginia: +5 (-106)
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Over: 130 (-110)
Under: 130 (-110)
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Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
The Blue Devils are unlikely to get swept by a less talented Virginia team. They have also had plenty of success on the road in Charlottesville in recent years, scoring multiple wins over Bennett and the Hoos.
Why Virginia Could Cover the Spread
The Cavaliers might not win this game outright, but they are getting five points, and they frequently play Duke close, enough to cover the spread in this case.
Final Duke-Virginia Prediction & Pick
Duke and the moneyline is the best play, but if picking this game against the spread, the Blue Devils are probably going to be angry about their loss to Virginia a few weeks ago. It's enough to recommend a Duke pick.
Final Duke-Virginia Pick: Duke -5
