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The Florida Gators are set to face the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Florida Kentucky prediction, odds, and pick.
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Florida has endured a very difficult season in a larger context of roster and injury limitations. The hard part is how to separate the two and render a fair verdict on embattled Gator coach Mike White. It is true that White doesn't recruit or use the transfer portal at a high-enough level to make Florida what it once was under Billy Donovan. That's on White, as college basketball odds analysts would readily agree. It's one of the main reasons the Gators have struggled to reach their potential in recent years. However, injuries and illesses have also hurt Florida, and they have reshaped the Florida Kentucky odds as well.
Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the court last season during a Florida-Florida State game. He was in very serious condition before eventually stabilizing and surviving that harrowing episode. He had a very promsing career in store for himself at Florida, but now that career is on hold. We're all thankful Johnson survived — that's the main thing — but in a narrow and cold context, Mike White was deprived of an important player. Strictly in relationship to basketball, it was a brutal turn of events for Florida to not have Johnson on the floor.
Now, fast-forward to this year: Colin Castleton, Florida's excellent big man who enjoyed a tremendous breakout season in 2021, has been dealing with injuries in recent weeks. He played against Ole Miss on the weekend and then against Georgia earlier this week, but he exacerbated his previous injury in the Georgia game. Even if he does play against Kentucky, he will clearly not be 100-percent healthy. Factor that into your Florida Kentucky prediction.
Florida has a much lower ceiling if Castleton cannot be particularly effective. That's just the way it is, and that lack of a full roster will make the controversies over Mike White — what is his fault, and what is beyond his control — continue in Gainesville.
Kentucky has established itself as a contender for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats' notable losses this season are all good losses, especially their losses to Auburn and LSU. TyTy Washington was injured in each of those losses. When Washington is on the floor, Kentucky has looked great, especially in recent wins over Kansas and Alabama on the road. Even Kentucky's loss to Notre Dame earlier in the season has looked progressively better now that Notre Dame has played its way into first place in the ACC.
John Calipari struggled one season ago. He went into the portal and made changes, such as adding Davidson shooter Kellan Grady and West Virginia big man Oscar Tshiebwe. The addition of Tshiebwe, who has recorded a 20-20 game (20 points, 20 rebounds) this season, has transformed Kentucky. TyTy Washington makes the offense complete. The Wildcats look like a Final Four team right now.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Florida-Kentucky odds:
College Basketball odds: Florida-Kentucky Odds
Florida: +9.5 (-106)
Kentucky: -9.5 (-114)
Over: 140.5 (-110)
Under: 140.5 (-110)
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Why Florida Could Cover the Spread
The Kentucky Wildcats won at Alabama a week ago because Alabama was 3 of 30 on 3-pointers. Kentucky played good defense, but not THAT good. If Florida can shoot the 3-ball, it can cover the spread.
Why Kentucky Could Cover the Spread
The Wildcats are a far better team, and with Colin Castleton far below 100-percent healthy, Kentucky should be able to feast on a vulnerable opponent.
Final Florida-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
Florida needs the best version of Colin Castleton to compete with Tshiebwe and Kentucky. Castleton isn't healthy. You can do the math.
Final Florida-Kentucky Pick: Kentucky -9.5
