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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Air Force Falcons. Check out our college basketball odds series for our New Mexico Air Force prediction and pick. Find out how to watch New Mexico Air Force.
The New Mexico Lobos are playing their way toward the bubble, not away from it. They are making their situation more precarious and uncertain, not less, in the Mountain West. The Lobos are not nailing down close games. They lost a second squeaker to former coach Steve Alford and the Nevada Wolf Pack, this time on their home floor. They had lost a double-overtime game in Reno. They had hoped to strike back and gain revenge in The Pit, but they fell short in a game they led by three points with nearly 2:30 left. Late-game defensive lapses and an inability to secure huge rebounds have plagued UNM, whose home-court loss to UNLV a month ago is now a much bigger drag on the overall resume, given UNLV's struggles in the Mountain West. New Mexico is probably a No. 10 seed right now in a lot of bracket projections, which is an uneasy bubble position. The Lobos are still more likely than not to make the NCAA Tournament, but their margin for error has been reduced by recent losses. If they get upset by Air Force in Colorado Springs, they would probably fall out of the field. This is simply not a game they can afford to lose.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the New Mexico-Air Force College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: New Mexico-Air Force Odds
New Mexico Lobos: -6.5 (-115)
Air Force Falcons: +6.5 (-105)
Over: 140.5 (-105)
Under: 140.5 (-115)
How To Watch New Mexico vs. Air Force
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports app
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET, 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch New Mexico-Air Force LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
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Why New Mexico Could Cover the Spread
New Mexico badly needs this game. The Lobos are moving closer to the bubble and the cut line for the NCAA Tournament. They know they can't lose to Air Force and expect to maintain at least some margin for error on the bubble. They know this game is the most important one of their season. The Lobos wouldn't improve their resume with a win, but if they're a projected No. 10 seed right now, the main goal is to avoid losing ground. If UNM can simply maintain its position, it will make the Big Dance. Losing to Air Force would erode its position and create a significant downward slide. The urgency of the moment should help the Lobos.
Also keep in mind that New Mexico just lost a tough battle to Nevada. Playing a good team and then turning around to face a mediocre Air Force squad should enable the flow of the game to become more manageable for New Mexico. Air Force doesn't have nearly the high-end talent or the shooters Nevada does. New Mexico's weak defense won't be exposed by AFA.
Why Air Force Could Cover the Spread
The New Mexico defense just isn't getting the job done. New Mexico allows crucial baskets and offensive rebounds on big possessions. UNLV, Nevada, Boise State (even though the Broncos lost to UNM), and other Mountain West teams have come up with big baskets on key possessions late in games. New Mexico's offense is hard to stop, but the defense under coach Richard Pitino has been so unreliable that Air Force should be able to keep this game close.
We also have to point out that after losing to Nevada — a game it bitterly wanted to win — New Mexico could suffer a letdown here. The Lobos aren't feeling very confident, and that could spill into this game.
Final New Mexico-Air Force Prediction & Pick
This game figures to be a moment where New Mexico either plays a strong game or wilts. Given how good this team is on offense, expect the Lobos to put the pieces back together and win by 13.
Final New Mexico-Air Force Prediction & Pick: New Mexico -6.5
