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The Virginia Cavaliers are set to face the Duke Blue Devils. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Virginia Duke prediction, odds, and pick.
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The Virginia Cavaliers won the national championship in 2019. They remained a factor in the ACC in 2020 and 2021 but slipped from their elite perch. Now they're just trying to make the NCAA Tournament, and they're fighting an uphill battle. Coach Tony Bennett is one of the best in the business, but he hasn't hit home runs in the transfer portal. As a result, he has a team which doesn't shoot particularly well. When Virginia doesn't have good shooters the way it did with the Kyle Guy-Ty Jerome teams of the late 2010s — or with Malcolm Brogdon in previous years — the Hoos struggle, as college basketball odds evaluators will be quick to point out. If you are thinking about making a Virginia Duke prediction, you have to realize that Virginia narrowly avoided losing at home to Pittsburgh, and the Hoos have lost to James Madison, Navy, and North Carolina State, among other teams. Their resume is weak, and they need a high-end win against a team such as Duke to give themselves a good chance of making the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Duke beat Gonzaga in late November in one of the best games of this season. College basketball odds experts would tell you that was a Final Four-level game. Yet, Duke has not reached that level of performance since then. Ordinarily, a blowout win at North Carolina would stamp Duke as an elite team, but North Carolina is so bad this season that the Blue Devils are going to enter March with some uncertainty. The ACC has not provided high-end tests for Duke, which is not the Blue Devils' fault. Yet, when you formulate your Virginia Duke pick, you have to remember that the ACC is in a down cycle and is not going to get markedly better in the next month. Coach Mike Krzyzewski is riding into the sunset in his final season with Duke. After more than 40 years on the bench in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Coach K wants to make one more Final Four, which he hasn't done since 2015.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Virginia-Duke odds:
College Basketball odds: Virginia-Duke Odds
Virginia: +11 (-114)
Duke: -11 (-106)
Over: 128 (-114)
Under: 128 (-106)
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Why Virginia Could Cover the Spread
The Duke offense becomes very ordinary when A.J. Griffin isn't hitting 3-pointers. Griffin has been a life-saver for the Blue Devils, because he has been the one consistent perimeter shooter on the roster. When he isn't on top of his game, though, Duke becomes very easy to defend. Tony Bennett will try to contain Griffin and force the rest of the Blue Devils to shoot. It could easily help Virginia stay close.
Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
The Virginia offense goes through so many bad games that it's hard to call a poor performance an aberration. It might not be the norm, but it's hardly an isolated occurrence when it happens. Virginia's offense could die in this game, and Duke certainly has the athletes to smother UVA's halfcourt sets.
Final Virginia-Duke Prediction & Pick
The lean on the spread goes to Virginia, but the best play is not the spread, since the Cavaliers can get caught in a nine-minute scoring drought. The best pick is to simply go with the under. The defenses are much more reliable than the offenses here.
Final Virginia-Duke Pick: Under 128
