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The Auburn Tigers (3-3) visit the #9 Ole Miss Rebels (6-0) in an SEC matchup Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Auburn-Ole Miss prediction and pick.
Auburn is firmly at .500 6 games into the season but has just one win against Power 5 conference teams. They beat up on Mercer in week 1 but barely squeaked out wins against San Jose State and Missouri. They've suffered two blowout losses to Penn State and Georgia, as well as a tight loss to LSU. Auburn is just 1-2 in the SEC. For our purposes, the Tigers are 1-5 against the spread.
Ole Miss has been one of the more surprising teams in the SEC given how much they lost from last year's team. The Rebels have been one of the best teams in the country. Ole Miss crushed Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Vanderbilt and pulled out tight wins against Tulsa and Kentucky. The Rebels are 2-0 in the SEC and 3-3 against the spread this season.
Here are the Auburn-Ole Miss college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Auburn-Ole Miss Odds
Auburn Tigers: +14.5 (-106)
Ole Miss Rebels: -14.5 (-114)
Over: 55.5 (-110)
Under: 55.5 (-110)
Why Auburn Could Cover The Spread
Auburn has not had the season they've wanted through six weeks. The Tigers have been outscored on average 25-20 and haven't scored more than 17 points against a Power 5 conference team. Head coach Bryan Harsin is firmly on the hot seat and may be coaching for his job this Saturday. This is something to keep in mind when making an Auburn-Ole Miss prediction but the question remains: How can Auburn cover? Well, it starts on offense.
The Tigers need to score. Auburn has scored between 10 and 17 points in each of their last four games and it's no coincidence they've managed to win just one of those. Even though they've been without quarterback TJ Finley since week 3, there is no excuse for how bad they've been on offense. That being said, freshman quarterback Robby Ashford has flashed in moments and will be a huge factor in Saturday's game. The dual-threat freshman struggled mightily against Georgia's stout defense but had his best game of the season in the previous week against LSU. Against the Tigers, Ashford threw for 337 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ole Miss allows just 212 passing yards per game so if Auburn is going to have a chance to cover they're going to need Ashford's A game.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover The Spread
Ole Miss has been exceptional through six weeks on both sides of the ball. The Rebels are outscoring opponents by an average of 40-15 and have shown the ability to put away inferior opponents early. Auburn has a talented offense that relies on the run game to open up deep passes.
The Rebels' offense starts with their 3-headed monster of a run game. Freshman Quinshon Judkins and junior Zach Evans split carries coming out of the backfield, while quarterback Jaxson Dart is exceptional at scrambling out of the pocket. Judkins was just a 3-star recruit coming out of high school but has quickly shown he was underrated. The freshman leads the team with 96 carries for 581 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, running-mate Zach Evans has been equally effective with slightly less work. Evans has amassed 469 yards and 6 touchdowns while serving as the #2 option. Ole Miss will look to establish the run game early and often against Auburn's 92nd-ranked run defense.
The big story in recent weeks from Ole Miss, however, has been the play of wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. On the season Mingo has caught 22 passes for 507 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's averaged 23 yards per reception and is a huge threat to stretch the field in compliments to the rushing game. The senior is coming off perhaps the best game in his career in last week's win against Vanderbilt. Mingo caught 9 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns. He'll have his work cut out for him against an Auburn secondary that has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, but he'll be an important part of the offense if Ole Miss wants to cover.
Final Auburn-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Expect a talented but flawed Auburn team to keep things close for two or three quarters, but Ole Miss should be able to pull away late. If you're looking for a team play, Ole Miss should be able to cover the 14.5 but I'm more interested in the under. Auburn's games have gone under in 3 games but they've yet to play in such a high total game. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has gone under in 4 games. It's not fun, but we're taking the under here.
Final Auburn-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: Under 55.5 (-110)
