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The Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas A&M Aggies. Check out our college football odds series for our Miami Texas A&M prediction and pick.
This is one of the centerpiece games of Week 3. It's a battle of programs both struggling to regain past glories and live up to their potential. There are megadonors at each school who have spent a lot of money in the NIL marketplace. Both head coaches, Mario Cristobal of Miami and Jimbo Fisher of Texas A&M, are formidable recruiters. Both fan bases have an intense hunger for national championship relevance and College Football Playoff appearances, and anything less than that standard simply won't be viewed as a success. Seeing these two programs meet in College Station on Saturday night will be like looking at two mirror images.
The biggest matchup of this game is not hard to identify. Miami's offensive line struggled against Southern Miss in the first half of Week 2. Miami scored just three points in the first 27 minutes against Southern Miss before waking up in the second half and winning 30-7. Mario Cristobal values offensive line play, so one would think that he can develop this group into a good unit. However, that unit might not be ready in time for this showdown at Kyle Field.
However, on the other side of the field, Texas A&M's defensive line was not able to impose its will on Appalachian State. The Mountaineers held the ball for over 41 minutes against the Aggies, converting nine third downs and three fourth downs. The A&M defensive line has to be more authoritative and timely. If it wins the battle against Miami's offensive front, the Aggies' chances of winning go way up.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Miami-Texas A&M College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Miami-Texas A&M Odds
Miami Hurricanes: +6.5 (-114)
Texas A&M Aggies: -6.5 (-106)
Over: 44.5 (-106)
Under: 44.5 (-114)
Why Miami Could Cover the Spread
If Texas A&M allows Appalachian State to hold the ball for more than 41 minutes, and posts only 180 yards of offense against a Sun Belt team at home, and gets no big plays from its quarterback (remember, A&M scored half of its 14 points versus App State on a kick return, so the offense posted only seven points), what should we expect against Miami? A&M is severely lacking on offense, and its defense doesn't seem to be powerful enough to compensate. Miami doesn't even need to win outright to cover the spread; it just needs to keep the game close. Barring a special teams mistake or a pick-six or another similarly awful blunder, Miami should be able to do that. A&M is not going to score more than 21 points, which means Miami just has to score at least 15 to cover. That seems likely.
Why Texas A&M Could Cover the Spread
After seeing how poorly Miami played on offense in the first half against Southern Miss, Texas A&M has to think it can shut down the Hurricanes and win a game without getting maximum production from its own struggling offense. There is a decent chance that A&M can get one or two turnovers from Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who was not particularly accurate against Southern Miss and did not display the rhythm which marked his 2021 season. If A&M smothers Miami's offense, it will cover the spread.
Final Miami-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick
This game is likely to be an ugly defensive fistfight. A&M might win it outright, but neither offense is going to produce enough to run away with the game. Only if one team makes a bunch of huge mistakes will this game be a blowout. This game is likely to be close. On that basis alone, the team getting almost a touchdown is more likely to cover. That's Miami.
Final Miami-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick: Miami +6.5
