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Oregon State football had a surprising season, coming in with a win total projection of just 5.5 games, the Beavers hit the total by the end of October, on their way to a nine-win season. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Oregon State football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Oregon State Football last year won every game they were favored in last year while losing the three regular-season games in which they were underdogs. Oregon State returned 65% of its production last year, including a majority of its offense. Expectations are high for the Beavers. DJ Uiagalelei comes into the fold for the Beavers and immediately will upgrade the quarterback position. Protecting Uiagalelei will be an offensive line that brings back four of five starters, and are a solid unit. Grant Starck transfers in to be the fifth man on the line, and with solid tackles, this unit should provide lots of protection for Uiagalelei. In the backfield, Damien Martinez was great as a freshman, rushing for just under 1,000 yards.
Beyond returning a stellar offense, the Beavers return plenty of starters on defense. While they lost two of their top guys to the NFL, the coaching staff has new players ready to step up and fill those voids. This defense was one of the best in the Pac-12 last year, and if they can improve on the pass rush, it will only be better.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: +130
Under 8.5 wins: -160
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Why Oregon State Can Win 8.5 Games
For Jonathan Smith and Oregon State Football, hitting the over on the win total needs to follow a formula similar to last year. It was simple. Firstly, win the games you are favored. Secondly, they will look to get one upset victory. The Beavers will open the season at San Jose State, and they will be heavily favored. Next, they will face UC Davis and San Diego State. Oregon State should be favored in both of those games as well. That places Oregon State at 3-0 heading into conference play. This year, Oregon State dodges USC, and that will help them in the conference schedule. Also, they play Oregon in Oregon, meaning they do not lose a home game to a game in which they are going to be a heavy underdog.
At home, the Beavers face Utah, UCLA, Stanford, and Washington. Ultimately, Oregon State needs three wins out of those four games and should be favored in at least two of them. They will be heavily favored against Stanford and should be a slight favorite against UCLA. They will be underdogs in the other two games though. If they get only two wins at home, they will need to win four of five on the road, which could be a tough task.
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The Beavers are listed as heavy underdogs to the Ducks. They will be favored against Cal, Colorado, and Arizona. Arizona will be improved this year. Ultimately, the Beavers need to win all three of those games to hit the over. Oregon State should be slight underdogs to Washington State, but if Uiagalelei plays at the five-star rating he came out with, then Oregon State can win that game as well.
Why Oregon State Can Not Win 8.5 Games
First, if there if DJ Uiagalelei is not as good as expected, this season could go south quickly. Uiagalelei struggled with accuracy at times at Clemson. He struggled to get the ball downfield. This led to Uiagalelei being benched at Clemson. If he cannot regain the sparks he showed as a freshman, it may not be the best season for DJU. Next, the schedule had some major spots for upsets. Arizona is a better team than last year. They will improve and could pull an upset over Oregon State. If Colorado makes a major leap forward on Deion Sanders, that could be another pitfall.
Second, there is the fact that Oregon State failed to perform an upset last year. Oregon State is going to be an underdog multiple times this year. Most likely they will be underdogs to Utah, Oregon, Washington, and Washington State. Considering all of those projections hold, the Beavers will have to have at least one upset this year to make it to nine wins. It will be possible for Oregon State to go into one of those games as slight favorite, but with Washington State being a road game, it is unlikely.
Finally, Oregon State lost their top wideout. He opened up the field and allowed Martinez to have open space to run. Ultimately, when teams stack the box against the Beavers, there will be little running room for their top weapon.
Final Oregon State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Beavers have a tough hill to climb if they want to hit nine wins again in the regular season. First, they have to be perfect in the non-conference schedule. Second, the Beavers will need to pull an upset. Third, DJ Uiagalelei needs to be better than he was at Clemson. Finally, they need to have their offensive line stay healthy. That is a lot of things that have to go right. Oregon State will be bowling this year, but with seven wins, the under is the pick here.
Final Oregon State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-160)
