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The Music City Bowl in Nashville will feature Tennessee and Purdue after successful seasons. It's time to continue our college football odds series with a Tennessee-Purdue prediction and pick.
Tennessee will clearly be the home team in this game even though Purdue will be the “home team.” The Volunteers finished the year 7-5 and the high point of the season was when they defeated No. 18 Kentucky 45-42 on the road. They won three of their final four games which put them eligible for a bowl game. The offense is led by quarterback Hendon Hooker who finished with 2,567 yards and 26 touchdowns. The offense exploded this year averaging 38.8 points per game. If they are on point against Purdue then they will put themselves in a position to win this game. Purdue relies on their defense so the Tennessee offense will be the focal point in this one.
Purdue ended the year 8-4 and knocked off some good teams this year. For the first time in a very long time, Purdue beat two top-4 teams in the same year. They beat No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State rather easily. Both times Purdue was ranked in the top-25, they lost the very next game. Finishing with eight wins in the regular season is a successful season for Purdue nonetheless, as we haven't seen them compete much over the years. The offense relies on the passing game as quarterback Aiden O'Connell is one of the top quarterbacks in the nation this year. He finished with 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns. He's completed multiple touchdowns to five different receivers this year and so there is a chance he leads them to a win Thursday afternoon.
Here is how FanDuel set the Tennessee-Purdue odds for the Music City Bowl.
College Football Odds: Tennessee-Purdue Odds
Tennessee: -5.5 (-114)
Purdue: +5.5 (-106)
Over: 64.5 (-110)
Under: 64.5 (-110)
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Why Tennessee Could Cover This Spread
It's going to be exciting to see how this passing game attacks the Purdue defense. That is the matchup to watch in this game and one that will make or break Tennessee. They will have the fan's support as many locals will be cheering them on. Even with that, it's going to come down to the offense being able to score points. Purdue has held some really good offenses to low points and so it's not going to be an easy task. FanDuel predicts that Tennessee will win this game and if the over/under is that high, then it should be high-scoring. The offense is coming off a 60-point and a 45-point performance in the last two weeks so the momentum is there. The Tennessee defense allows just as many points as Purdue averages on offense at 27 a game. That shouldn't be the storyteller in this matchup.
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread
Purdue is capable of covering this spread if their defense can contain the Tennessee passing attack. On offense, they will be without star receiver David Bell as he prepares for the draft. He led the team with 93 receptions, 1,286 yards, and six touchdowns. It's going to take a group effort to continue to keep the passing game going and O'Connell will need to be on his game. They can cover this spread if they can find a way to shut down the strong Tennessee offense. It's going to be tough to put up a ton of points for Purdue without their top receiver, so the defense will need to keep them in the game. The run game isn't the main priority in their game plan but maybe that will change against Tennessee. It's going to take a lot for Purdue to cover this spread but they can certainly do it if they keep it close.
Final Tennessee-Purdue Prediction & Pick
I think the score will end very close and I predict Tennessee will win this game. But I'm going to take Purdue to cover this spread and lose in a very close game. It could go either way but I think Purdue's wins against top-4 teams aren't a fluke. They will be missing some crucial players but I think they will cover this spread. Either way, the Music City Bowl should be fun.
Final Tennessee-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Purdue +5.5 (-106)
