The NBA resumes from the All-Star break with a starkly contrasting Western Conference showdown. The struggling Dallas Mavericks head to Target Center to face the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dallas limps into the matchup riding a nine-game losing streak. That was the franchise’s longest since January 1998. Meanwhile, Minnesota sits comfortably in the playoff picture as the current 6-seed. This will be the third meeting between the teams this season.
Minnesota closed the pre-break stretch with a commanding 133–109 win over Portland. They were fueled by Julius Randle’s season-high 41 points and Jaden McDaniels’ all-around performance. Meanwhile, Dallas fell 124–104 to the Lakers without Cooper Flagg. They continue to battle mounting injuries, with Daniel Gafford and Max Christie listed as questionable. The Wolves are surging. The Mavericks are spiraling. Friday night could amplify both narratives.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves betting odds
Mavericks: +13.5, -112
Timberwolves: -13.5, -112
Over: 238.5, -108
Under: 238.5, -112
(All odds courtesy of Draftkings)
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves key injuries
Mavericks: F Caleb Martin (Ankle), G Max Christie (Ankle), F Daniel Gafford (Ankle), F Cooper Flagg (Foot), G Kyrie Irving (Knee)
Timberwolves: N/A
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves betting trends
The Mavericks and Timberwolves have played each other 58 times since the 2010-11 regular season. Historically, the Mavericks have held the upper hand with a 31-27 record in those head-to-head matchups. However, the tide has turned recently. So far this 2025-26 season, the Timberwolves have won both of their meetings with the Mavericks. Their most recent encounter in January saw Minnesota secure a 118-105 victory in Dallas, while their November meeting ended in a dominant 120-96 home win for the Wolves.
Interestingly, the road team has found consistent success, winning six of the last seven matchups between these two teams. Entering this game, the Mavericks are struggling significantly, having lost nine straight games, including double-digit defeats to the Lakers and these same Timberwolves. Minnesota, meanwhile, enters this contest with momentum, having won two consecutive games and seven of their last 10 as they push for a higher seed in the Western Conference.
Several betting trends do indicate that the Mavericks will have a tough time against the Timberwolves in this matchup:
- Anthony Edwards has recorded four or more rebounds in each of the Timberwolves' last 12 games against the Mavericks.
- Rudy Gobert has scored 10+ points in each of his last 11 home appearances against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.
- PJ Washington has scored 10+ points in each of his last 13 appearances against Timberwolves teams that held a winning record.
- Four of the Timberwolves' last five home games against the Mavericks have gone OVER the total points line.
2025 records:
Mavericks: 19-35 straight up, 23-30-1 ATS; Timberwolves: 34-22 straight up, 25-31 ATS
Over/Under:
Mavericks 24-30; Timberwolves 28-28
Keys to Mavericks vs. Timberwolves matchup
Dallas Mavericks
Exploit the interior advantage:
With Dereck Lively II sidelined and Gafford uncertain, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle should control the paint. Minnesota ranks 10th in rebounding. Meanwhile, Dallas sits 27th in opponent rebounds allowed. Second-chance points could create separation early.
Unleash Anthony Edwards:
Fresh off a standout All-Star weekend, Edwards ranks third in the NBA in scoring at 29.3 PPG. Against Dallas, Edwards has a clear runway to attack downhill and dictate tempo.
Maintain defensive intensity:
Minnesota’s 12th-ranked scoring defense thrives on ball pressure. Forcing turnovers from Naji Marshall and Brandon Williams would ignite transition opportunities for the Wolves.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Three-point variance:
Without Kyrie Irving and Flagg, Dallas must lean heavily on perimeter shooting. Christie (if he plays) and Klay Thompson need efficient, high-volume nights from deep to keep the game within reach.
Control the pace:
The Mavericks play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. However, they lack the depth to win a track meet. Slowing the game, valuing possessions, and limiting turnovers will be essential.
Next man up:
With multiple rotation players unavailable, Marshall and Williams must shoulder primary playmaking duties. Dallas’ only hope is balanced scoring and disciplined execution.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick
The Mavericks’ skid has exposed both defensive gaps and depth limitations. Facing a healthy Minnesota squad that has already beaten them twice this season is a daunting assignment. That's particularly true on the road.
The Timberwolves have everything aligned. They have interior size, scoring firepower, and playoff urgency. Dallas, meanwhile, remains undermanned and searching for stability.
Expect Minnesota to establish control early through rebounding and transition offense. Sure, Dallas’ shooting could create brief runs. However, sustaining that level for 48 minutes seems unlikely.
Final score prediction: Timberwolves 126, Mavericks 108
Spread: Timberwolves -13.5
Over/Under: Under 238.5
