We're back with another betting prediction and pick as the UFC Houston Main Card gets underway with this opening bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Exciting finishers will go to battle as Texas' own Zach Reese fights Brazil's Michel Pereira to kick-off the Main Card. Check our UFC odds series for the Reese-Pereira prediction and pick.
Zach Reese (10-2) has gone 4-2-0-1 since joining the UFC roster. He submitted Jackson McVey during his last fight in the second round, a strong response following his ‘No Contest' result against Sedriques Dumas. He'll look to continue trending in the right direction as the short underdog. Reese stands 6-foot-4 with a 77-inch reach.
Michel Pereira (31-14) is 9-5 since joining the UFC in 2019. After posting an eight-fight winning streak from 2020 to 2024, Pereira has dropped his last three bouts heading into this one against top talent within the division. He stands 6-foot-1 with a 73-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Zach Reese-Michel Pereira Odds
Zach Reese: +130
Michel Pereira: -155
Over 1.5 rounds: +114
Under 1.5 rounds: -145
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Why Zach Reese Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jackson McVey – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Typically a knockout threat, Zach Reese showed off some of his grappling chops with a quick submission over Jackson McVey during his last fight. It was the perfect definitive victory following his ‘No Contest' against Sedriques Dumas where Reese landed an accidental groin strike that ultimately ended the fight. He looked sharp and decisive his last time out against McVey, so expect him to continue mounting momentum as he searches for another finish.
Reese will have a slight size advantage here but he should be cautious of the veteran savvy from Michel Pereira. Reese's chin isn't impervious to getting caught and he'll need to be wary of the chaotic exchanges from the pocket. However, he's younger and more durable than his opponent and could like his chances if things get scrappy in the boxing.
Reese will have more power at his disposal and while he's the more decisive puncher, he's not particularly fluid with mixing his combinations. His success begins with the jab and if he's able to find a home in that early, it's only a matter of time before he lands a right hand he'll be loading up the entire fight.
Why Michel Pereira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Kyle Daukaus – TKO (ground strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Michel Pereira hasn't been able to catch a break since losing his winning streak, getting knocked out twice and UD'd by Abus Magomedov during his last three fights. Still, he cant rest assured knowing his losses have come against some serious prospect and he should be given a more manageable task in Reese this time around. Still, Pereira will need to make some kind of changes and return to the same form we saw during his winning streak.
Michel Pereira is very versatile with his offense and will use unique angles in throwing his strikes. His footwork and movement is a hallmark of his fighting style, so he could stand to see some success against a stiffer opponent in Reese. Pereira will have to work his angles perfectly as the shorter fighter, but expect him to be effective when he's able to land.
Despite the losses, Michel Pereira has been able to keep his energy at a high level and comes into each bout with a ton of confidence in his abilities. This is typically a matchup he would thrive in considered the chaotic nature, but his chin has shown to be compromised over the last few fights as he should avoid any risky openings.
Final Zach Reese-Michel Pereira Prediction & Pick
This fight isn't expected to last very long as these two fighters should immediately start trading once they meet in the center of the cage. Reese is the more imposing fighter and we have to like his knockout upside given Pereira's willingness to engage in a war. Pereira, on the other hand, could easily be the more convincing side if he's able to show up in top shape and execute a patient game plan.
I expect Zach Reese to be a bit sharper in the opening round of this fight, ultimately landing a big strike that puts Pereira away. Reese is quick to finish the fight with follow-up shots and at this point of his career, Michel Pereira's chin is a serious knockout risk. Let's roll with the slight underdog as the total barely hits over.
Final Zach Reese-Michel Pereira Prediction & Pick: Zach Reese (+130); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+114)
