UFC Houston continues with Main Card action from Toyota Center as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this Co-Main Event in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 12-ranked Geoff Neal of Dallas will take on Serbia's dangerous Uros Medic in a fight you won't want to miss. Check our UFC odds series for the Neal-Medic prediction and pick.
Geoff Neal (16-7) is 8-5 during his UFC tenure since 2018. He's taken a step backwards with a 1-3 record in his last four fights leading into this one, most recently losing to Carlos Prates in the first round. Still, he'll look to bounce back as the betting favorite this time around, standing 5-foot-11 with a 75-inch reach.
Uros Medic (12-3) is a positive 6-3 since joining the UFC roster in 2021. He also had a rocky 1-2 string of fights, but comes into this bout riding back-to-back knockouts in the first round. He'll look for the upset as the underdog, standing 6-foot-1 with a 71-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Geoff Neal-Uros Medic Odds
Geoff Neal: -218
Uros Medic: +180
Over 1.5 rounds: +150
Under 1.5 rounds: -195
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Why Geoff Neal Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Carlos Prates – KO (spinning elbow, R1)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Geoff Neal was preparing for a war against top welterweight prospect Carlos Prates during his last fight, but his plan for the upset fell short when Prates connected with a flush spinning elbow to put Neal out. It was one of the cleaner knockouts we've seen Geoff Neal suffer in recent memory, but we can expect a much more motivated version of him this time around knowing he's facing another prospect and not a top-ranked contender.
Geoff Neal is one of the hardest punches in the Welterweight Division and he'll be a threat to finish this fight with a knockout through all three rounds. He remains pressuring forward despite what may be happening in the fight, consistently forcing opponents to make decisions when he's in their space. Expect another outing where Neal is the aggressor and leading the dance with his forward movement.
Thinking back to Neal's war against Shavkat Rakhmonov, he sustained a tremendous amount of damage while still remaining on his feet and dangerous through the first four rounds. While Neal may seem vulnerable due to his last fight, he's very durable and it'll take more than one clean strike from Medic to effectively put him away.
Why Uros Medic Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Muslim Salikhov – TKO (straight right, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Uros Medic landed the perfect right hand to sit Muslim Salikhov down during his last fight, quickly jumping on top and finishing the bout with ground strikes. Medic has a flare for the exciting knockout and he'll certainly be a threat to do so again with his unorthodox striking techniques. This time around, however, a one-punch knockout may be more difficult as he'll have to sustain his offense through all three rounds.
Medic is very dangerous with his elbows and knees while doing significant damage from in-close. He's quick with his jabs and hooks while still paying attention to using his kicking game and slowing the movement of his opponent. Expect the low leg kicks to become a theme early on as he tries to hinder the movement of Geoff Neal.
Medic isn't typically one to initiate the grappling, but he's shown sneaky submission skills from tough positions and it's not likely that Geoff Neal will force a grappling match out of him in this one. Medic should remain diligent on the feet and capitalize on the openings when he sees them as they may not come too often against a strong defender like Neal.
Final Geoff Neal-Uros Medic Prediction & Pick
This scrap has all the makings of a classic as both fighters are completely willing to meet in the center of the cage and trade shots. Geoff Neal has to be the slightly more durable fighter of the two, but Medic's offense is much more versatile and unpredictable. Geoff Neal is the bigger knockout threat, but Medic is more skilled from a striking standpoint and could force some awkward exchanges.
Assuming that both men are going to land damaging shots, we have to slightly favor the durability of Geoff Neal not to go down in this one. Medic is capable of sitting opponents down, but this will be the toughest test of his career and he won't be able to win on one strike alone.
For these reasons, we're going to roll with Geoff Neal to earn the win as the slight favorite. I expect his punches to have a greater effect throughout this fight and he's shown an ability to remain more consistent than Medic through all three rounds.
Final Geoff Neal-Uros Medic Prediction & Pick: Geoff Neal (-218); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+150)
