UFC Houston: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez continues on the prelims with a bout between Alden Coria and Luis Gurule in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Coria-Gurule prediction and pick.
Alden Coria (11-3, 1 NC) made a stunning UFC debut in September 2025, securing a third-round TKO victory over Alessandro Costa at Noche UFC. The former Fury FC standout has won four of his last five bouts (excluding a No Contest) and looks to continue his ascent as he comes into his fight this weekend against Luis Gurule.
Luis Gurule (10-2) is looking to snap a two-fight losing skid after dropping a unanimous decision to Jesus Aguilar in September 2025 and suffering a TKO loss to Ode Osbourne earlier that year. The Contender Series veteran, who previously held an 8-fight win streak, faces a must-win situation as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alden Coria.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston odds: Alden Coria-Luis Gurule odds
Alden Coria: -285
Luis Gurule: +230
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Alden Coria will win
- Last Fight: (W) Alessandro Costa – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 9 (5 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Alden Coria enters this matchup as the more polished and dangerous striker, with a clear path to victory on the feet. “The Cobra” showcased his lethal precision in his UFC debut, where he out-landed Alessandro Costa 77-14 in significant strikes before securing a third-round TKO. His ability to maintain range and punish opponents with crisp combinations will be a nightmare for Luis Gurule, who has shown a tendency to get hit cleanly in exchanges.
Gurule's recent struggles against Ode Osbourne and Jesus Aguilar exposed significant holes in his defensive game, particularly when forced into a striking battle. He absorbs too much damage while trying to close the distance, a flaw that Coria's speed and accuracy will ruthlessly exploit. Coria's footwork allows him to circle away from danger and counter effectively, frustrating opponents who rely on pressure without technical refinement.
Furthermore, Coria's takedown defense and ability to scramble back to his feet will likely neutralize Gurule's grappling attempts. If Gurule cannot secure top control, he will be forced to trade with a superior striker who has momentum on his side. Expect Coria to pick Gurule apart from the outside, accumulating damage until he finds the finishing sequence in the second or third round.
Why Luis Gurule will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jesus Aguilar – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Luis Gurule enters this matchup with a clear advantage in grappling pressure and resilience that could spoil Alden Coria's striking showcase. “Grim” has proven he can weather early storms and drag opponents into deep waters with his relentless wrestling and top control.
Coria's previous struggles against grapplers suggest that if Gurule can close the distance and secure the takedown, the momentum of the fight will shift dramatically. Gurule averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, a pace that will test Coria's cardio and defensive grappling like never before.
While Coria is dangerous on the feet, his takedown defense has shown cracks when pressured against the cage. Gurule excels at grinding opponents down in the clinch, sapping their energy and neutralizing their striking output.
Expect Gurule to eat a few shots early to secure the clinch, then relentlessly pursue the takedown until he grounds Coria. Once on top, Gurule's heavy pressure and ground-and-pound should allow him to control the rounds and secure a hard-fought decision victory or late stoppage.
Final Alden Coria-Luis Gurule prediction & pick
Alden Coria enters this matchup as the more dynamic and dangerous striker, with a clear path to victory on the feet. His impressive UFC debut showcased lethal precision and an ability to maintain range that will pose significant problems for Luis Gurule, who has struggled defensively in recent outings.
Gurule's tendency to absorb damage while closing the distance plays directly into Coria's strength of landing crisp counters and circling away from pressure. While Gurule is a relentless grappler, his predictable entries and lack of setup leave him vulnerable to Coria's sharp striking and footwork.
Coria's takedown defense has improved, and his ability to scramble back to his feet will likely neutralize Gurule's primary win condition of grinding out a decision. Once forced into a striking battle, Gurule will be outmatched by Coria's speed and volume.
Expect Coria to control the distance early, frustrating Gurule with movement before accumulating damage with combinations and he secures a second-round TKO victory, overwhelming Gurule on the feet and continuing his ascent in the flyweight division.
Final Alden Coria-Luis Gurule Prediction & Pick: Alden Coria (-280), Under 2.5 Rounds (+124)
