The UFC Houston Prelims continue from the Toyota Center as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Flyweight (125) Division. Jamaica's Ode Osbourne takes on Alibi Idiris of Kazakhstan as both fighters hope to rebound following a loss. Check our UFC odds series for the Osbourne-Idiris prediction and pick.
Ode Osbourne (13-9) has gone 5-7 since joining the UFC roster in 2020. Following a strong start to his tenure, Osbourne has been on a downswing with a 1-4 record over his last five fights. He's looking to redeem another loss as he tries to salvage his current record. Osbourne stands 5-foot-7 with a 73-inch reach.
Alibi Idiris (10-1) is searching for his first UFC win following a loss to Joseph Morales during his UFC debut. Up to that point, Idiris had won all ten of his bouts under NAIZA while going 2-0 during The Ultimate Fighter, so this serves as a big spot to prove himself once again. Idiris stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Odds
Ode Osbourne: +110
Alibi Idiris: -130
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
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Why Ode Osbourne Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Steve Erceg – U DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Ode Osbourne took a massive step up in competition during his last bout in facing a former title challenger in Steve Erceg. Despite clearly losing each of the three rounds, Osbourne managed to avoid the finish and had his own moments of success throughout the fight. He's much more experienced and has faced a much higher level of competition opposite his opponent in this one, so expect Osbourne to carry some confidence heading into this fight despite his recent skid.
Osbourne is extremely explosive with all of his movements and can finish the fight from anywhere if he finds an opening. His wild style has gotten him knocked out and submitted in the past, but Osbourne is always guaranteed to put every ounce of his effort into each fight. If he's able to shift the momentum at any point with a big shot, don't be surprised if he's able to finish the fight quickly.
While having speed and athleticism on his side, Osbourne will always have the advantage of unpredictability as his opponent has been known for a steady wrestling style. Four of his opponents' wins have come by way of decision, so Osbourne would greatly benefit from pushing a pace and forcing his opponent to finish the fight inside the distance.
Why Alibi Idiris Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Joseph Morales – SUB (triangle choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Alibi Idiris came into the Ultimate Fighter finale as a -500 betting favorite thanks to his spotless record up to that point. While Idiris was game to exchange with Joseph Morales, he clearly wasn't expecting such effective resistance on the feet from his opponent. On the ground, Morales proved much more opportunistic in securing the submission victory while Idiris looked shocked and out of place during the loss.
This time around, Idiris won't be able to underestimate any UFC competition, even if Osbourne has lost four of his last five fights. The gap in octagon time is significant and although Idiris has all the tools to be dominant during this fight, he won't be able to fold under the pressure and lights of the moment.
Idiris can dominate during this particular matchup if he's able to weather the early storm of Osbourne's striking and return with his chain wrestling. Osbourne notably has four losses by submission, the most of any method in his career, so Idiris can find the upper hand if he's able to force dominant position on the ground.
Final Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting fight if Ode Osbourne is able to lead the dance and control the pace, but Alibi Idiris will be much more interested in grabbing a hold of Osbourne and keeping him on the mat. Osbourne's 66% takedown defense will be a recurring storyline throughout this fight as Idiris should be looking to notch the takedowns after realizing he's out-matched on the feet.
I expect Ode Osbourne's experience to be a huge factor in conserving his energy and keeping his striking output consistent throughout this one. If he's able to effectively stuff the takedowns and not take too many risks in leaving himself open to be countered, he should have enough variability in his striking arsenal to catch Idiris off-guard at some point.
For our final pick, we'll roll with the more experienced Osbourne as this fight should see the later rounds given what a win would mean for either side.
Final Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Prediction & Pick: Ode Osbourne (+110); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-210)
