We're back with another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Houston Main Card as we turn attention towards this short-notice bout at Welterweight (170). Jacobe Smith of Dallas, Texas will take on the returning Josiah Harrell stepping in to save this bout. Check our UFC odds series for the Smith-Harrell prediction and pick.
Jacobe Smith (11-0) has gone 2-0 through his first UFC appearances in 2025. After earning a contract on DWCS with a knockout win, Smith has followed it up with a first-round knockout and a submission win in his first UFC action. He pivots opponents and comes in the sizable betting favorite, standing 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
Josiah Harrell (11-0) will be making his UFC debut after originally being slated to fight Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 290 in 2023. Following a serious medical issue, Harrell has posted a 4-0 record in other organizations since and fills into this spot on just five days notice. Harrell stands 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Odds
Jacobe Smith: -290
Josiah Harrell: +235
Over 2.5 rounds:
Under 2.5 rounds:
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Why Jacobe Smith Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Niko Price – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
In facing a seasoned veteran like Niko Price for just his second UFC appearance, highly-touted prospect Jacobe Smith added a new wrinkle to his game in notching the first submission win of his career. It didn't take long before he seriously damaged Price and managed to take the back to finish the fight, further proving that Smith is a serious name to watch in the division moving forward. He was originally scheduled to fight an aggressive striker in Seok Hyeon Ko, but he'll have to shift gears in an unexpected turn of events.
There aren't many holes in Jacobe Smith's skill set and he's about as complete of a two-fight UFC prospect you're ever going to see. He's extremely decisive with his striking and flaunts one-strike knockout ability with either his fists or kicks. Still, he's facing a steadily improving opponent and he won't be able to take Harrell lightly during this one.
Still, Smith's game plan should remain the same as fighting with crisp technique and conviction should prove to be effective against any opponent. Watch for him to be extremely patient through the opening round while slowly gauging the distance and waiting for Harrell to over-extend so he can land the finishing blow needed to end this fight.
Why Josiah Harrell Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Bekmyrza Dosmatov – TKO (corner stoppage, R3)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
After almost fighting Jack Della Maddalena for his UFC debut in 2023, Josiah Harrell was diagnosed with a rare brain disease (Moyamoya) that required immediate surgery, effective putting his UFC dreams on pause. He made a miraculous return to the sport in 2024 and after notching four-straight victories, he finally got the call to step in on short notice to save this fight. Pending all of his medical examinations, this would be a momentous debut and a true comeback story manifesting itself.
Harrell is a very measured striker with six knockouts on his record and comes into this bout after forcing his opponents' corner to stop the fight due to his consistent onslaught. He's also very strong in his striking stance and difficult to bring down, but more than comfortable fighting on the mat with four submissions as well.
Most of all, Harrell is extremely persistent in his approach and displays tremendous toughness regardless of the circumstances. He should be in for some inevitable adversity as the betting underdog, but expect full-blown effort out of him each minute he's inside of the cage.
Final Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Prediction & Pick
This is already a huge comeback story for Josiah Harrell and regardless of the result, he'll come out of this a winner knowing he exacted his goal of making it to the UFC stage. His path to victory won't be easy against a polished opponent like Jacobe Smith, but the MMA community will certainly be pulling for his success during this debut.
Still, from a betting perspective, Jacobe Smith is the clear choice to win this fight as he's already hit the ground running in terms of facing increasingly difficult UFC opposition. His previous opponent was on a similar trajectory, but don't expect Smith to take Harrell lightly at all knowing his skill set and determination.
We'll have to roll with Jacobe Smith to get the win in this fight as he should control things from start to finish with his crisp striking and ability to change levels throughout.
Final Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Prediction & Pick: Jacobe Smith (-290)
