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UFC Mexico City: Moreno vs. Royval 2 is fully underway and we're set to bring you our betting prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim bout taking place in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Mexico's Cristian Quinonez will square off against Brazil's Raoni Barcelos in an exciting scrap. Check out our UFC odds series for our Quinonez-Barcelos prediction and pick.
Cristian Quinonez (18-4) has gone 1-1 in the UFC since winning a contract on Contender Series. He won his debut fight via first-round knockout but was dealt a submission loss in his last fight, also coming in the first round. He'll look for a big win in front of his Mexican supporters as the moderate betting underdog. Quinonez stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Raoni Barcelos (17-5) has gone 6-4 in the UFC since his arrival in 2018. He's had a rough stretch since 2020, going just 1-4 in his last five fights with a win over Trevin Giles. He comes in off back-to-back losses against Umar Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips looking to bounce back here. Barcelos stands 5'7″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Cristian Quinonez-Raoni Barcelos Odds
Cristian Quinonez: +170
Raoni Barcelos: -195
Over 2.5 rounds: +135
Under 2.5 rounds: -165
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Why Cristian Quinonez Will Win
While Cristian Quinonez has yet to see a second round in his young UFC career, he trains out of Mexico City and will be heavily acclimated to the 7,350 ft. elevation. He hasn't gotten a chance to show off his full range of skills in the octagon just yet, but he'll drag this fight out and test his opponent's cardio if he gets the chance. Prior to his last loss, he rode a five-fight winning streak that saw two knockout wins. Look for Quinonez to let his hands fly by the second round of this one.
The one knock on Quinonez' game has been his tendency to get hit hard in the pocket. He keeps his hands relaxed while striking and he's gotten hit hard in the past. Expect him to be defensively-minded against Barcelos as he tries to weather the early storm and pull out an unlikely underdog victory for the fans.
Why Raoni Barcelos Will Win
Raoni Barcelos is coming into this fight as the surprising favorite given his 1-4 record over the last five fights. Clearly, odds makers are taking his experience against top-level competition into account as well as his knockout power in the division. Still, Barcelos did not take time to acclimate to the elevation and will have to work around it during this one. Clearly, he thinks he can end this fight inside of the distance and walk away with a win as the favorite.
Raoni Barcelos' big edge in this fight will be his knockout power and willingness to move forward with his striking. His opponent doesn't have nearly the same type of punching power as Barcelos, so he could look to walk him down and overwhelm him with combinations. We saw a similar power discrepancy during Ilia Topuria's recent win over Alexander Volkanovski, so expect Barcelos to march forward and try to end this fight.
Final Cristian Quinonez-Raoni Barcelos Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting bout for as long as it last given both fighters' ability to end the bout in a hurry. Cristian Quinonez has yet to make it out of a first round in his UFC career and Barcelos also has a flair for finishing fights as well. Both fighters are well-versed in the striking and on the ground, but we should see the majority of this fight take place on the feet.
Given the 7,350 ft. elevation in Mexico City, Cristian Quinonez will have a big advantage training in the area and being accustomed to the air. Barcelos will have to find it within himself to get the finish early and not risk gassing out. If Cristian Quinonez plays it smart, he'll wait for Barcelos to empty his gas and put the pressure on him after.
For the prediction, let's slightly side with the underdog in this one. The momentum for the Mexican fighters should be palpable in the area and training at this elevation will be a huge advantage for any fighter out of Mexico City. As long as he can withstand the early barrage from Barcelos, Quinonez should come out of this fight as the eventual winner. We'll roll with him as the underdog.
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Final Cristian Quinonez-Raoni Barcelos Prediction & Pick: Cristian Quinonez (+170)
