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The Chicago Cubs will face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday at Chase Field. It will be a battle of two National League hopefuls as we continue our MLB odds series with a Cubs-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs. Last season, he went 12-8 with a 3.27 ERA. But Taillon struggled on the road, going 4-4 with 4.58 ERA away from Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly will start for the Diamondbacks. Kelly went 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA over 13 starts. Ultimately, he is 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA over six starts against the Cubs.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Diamondbacks Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: +110
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: -130
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Cubs vs. Reds
Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40 PM PT
TV: DBACKS TV + Marquee Sports Network
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Why The Cubs Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cubs are off to a bad start after losing their first two games in Japan. However, it's instrumental to remember that those early games were against the champions. Chicago still has a lot of hope, including some new additions. Significantly, Kyle Tucker is their best addition and will certainly be dangerous in this lineup.
Tucker has hit .283 with eight RBIs and nine runs in his career. Therefore, expect him to make an impact in this game and be one of the stronger bats. Ian Happ likely leads off at the top of the batting order. So far, he has not done badly against them, batting .273 (6 for 22) with a home run, six RBIs, and four runs in his career against them.
Seiya Suzuki is the third hitter in the lineup and will face immense pressure to produce. Also, Michael Busch is the first baseman and will provide support in the cleanup role. Nico Hoerner is the fifth hitter and looks to continue providing his multi-faceted offensive style.
Taillon will look to last at least five innings before turning it all over to the bullpen. Then, the Cubs will look to finish things off with an inconsistent bullpen that often struggled last season with injuries and subpar play. So far, the bullpen has allowed four runs and even took the loss in the opener after Shota Imanaga tossed four shutout innings. Getting the ball to Ryan Pressly with the lead will be critical, as he is one of the hardest throwers in the game and can do significant damage.
The Cubs will cover the spread if their lineup can get them an early lead. Then, they must get a good outing from Taillon and for the bullpen to not crumble under pressure.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks flopped last season after making it to the World Series in 2023. Now, they get a chance at redemption as they attempt to compete in a loaded NL West.
Ketel Marte was amazing last season, winning the Silver Slugger Award after hitting .292 with 36 home runs and 95 RBIs over 136 games. Also, he did well against his Cubs, batting .360 with nine hits, two home runs, three RBIs, and five runs over six games last season. Marte will get another chance to do some damage at the top of the lineup.
Corbin Carroll must do better. Yes, he improved over the second half of the season. But Carroll still finished with a batting average of .231 with 22 doubles, 14 triples, 22 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 121 runs with 35 stolen bases. Those numbers indicate some real talent. However, his hitting could improve.
The bullpen has taken some hits already. Now, they must do what they can with a two-headed situation at closer. When they want a lefty, AJ Puk will take the mound. When they want a righty, Justin Martinez will get the nod.
The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if Marte and Carroll can set the tone for the rest of the lineup and get on base to give them a chance to score some runs. Then, they need a good performance from Merrill, and for the bullpen to hold firm.
Final Cubs-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Cubs went 77-85 against the spread last season, while the Diamondbacks went 83-79. Additionally, the Cubs went 47-34 against the spread on the road, while the D-Backs went 36-45 against the spread at home.
Both teams will be playoff contenders this season. I think this matchup will go down to the wire. The Cubs started the season badly against the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the Diamondbacks are not at that level. I think the Cubs will do enough to cover the spread on the road.
Final Cubs-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-200)
