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The Chicago Cubs (34-38) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-37) for the second of their three-game series. First pitch commences Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET. Chicago jumped out to an early series lead thanks to their 8-0 win in yesterday's opener. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Cubs-Pirates prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Cubs-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Pirates Odds
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+128)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How To Watch Cubs vs. Pirates
TV: Marquee, ATTSN Pittsburgh
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET/ 4:05 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Cubs-Pirates LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Don't look now, but the Chicago Cubs are winning again. After starting the season hot, the Cubs regressed mightily including their 10-18 record in May. They've turned a corner this month – winning three consecutive series and eight of their last 10 games. Chicago dominated the series opener last night – collecting eight runs thanks to 10 hits while shutting Pittsburgh out. With their ace on the bump, the Cubs are well-positioned to cover despite being road favorites tonight.
Righty Marcus Stroman (8-4) makes his 16th start of the season for the Cubs tonight. The 32-year-old is in the midst of the best season of his career thanks to a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. With a 3.5 WAR in 15 starts, Stroman is well on pace to surpass the 5.8 WAR he achieved in 33 starts back in 2017. While Stroman doesn't strike man batters out, he hardly ever allows barrels – ranking in the 93rd percentile league-wide. Consequently, Stroman sits in the top seven percent of the league with a .247 wOBA allowed.
While the righty does have a 3.73 expected ERA, he has traditionally outperformed his expected ERA by a considerable margin – doing so in each of the last three seasons. A pinpoint control pitcher, Stroman already output a quality start against the Pirates in his most recent start. In last week's 7-2 win, Stroman gave up just two runs on four hits in 6.0 innings of work.
Both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ will be happy to see Johan Oviedo back on the mound today. For their careers, Hoerner has gone 5/7 against Oviedo – although all five hits were singles. As for Happ, he's gone 6/13 with two doubles, a triple, and three walks. While both sluggers have cooled off this month, Hoerner has been Chicago's most consistent hitter all season long thanks to his .283 average and 16 stolen bases.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
After last night's loss, the Pirates have now gone just 14-28 following their 19-9 opening month. Despite sitting in first place in the division just last week, Pittsburgh has dropped to third in the NL Central – just 0.5 games ahead of the Cubs. While Chicago hasn't been great on the road this season, the Pirates have lost seven consecutive games and are desperate for any sort of offensive spark. They tried to ignite one themselves by calling up top prospect Henry Davis last night. Although he doubled and walked in his debut, it was far from enough for the Buccos as they were shut out. Now, matched up with Chicago's ace, the Pirates will need a bounce back from Johan Oviedo and some signs of life from their offense if they want to cover as home underdogs.
Righty Johan Oviedo (3-6) makes his 15th start of the season for the Pirates tonight. The 25-year-old came over from St. Louis midway through last season and looked sharp upon arrival – maintaining a 3.23 ERA. He hasn't found anywhere close to last year's success with a 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 2023. Oviedo features a blazing fastball that regularly touches the upper 90s. Despite that, he hardly generates strikeouts but does do a solid job limiting hard contact – sitting in the 68th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 71st in Barrel rate.
Still, he struggles mightily with walks and was roughed up by the Cubs last week. In 4.1 innings, Oviedo allowed four runs on eight hits – although, he did strike out eight. That said, Oviedo has been much better at home (3.86 ERA) compared to on the road (5.08 ERA) and thus should be in line for a better start than last week.
Final Cubs-Pirates Prediction & Pick
We already saw how this matchup between Stroman and Oviedo turned out last week when the Cubs used a five-run fifth to win 7-2. Chicago may not have that much offensive success tonight but following an eight-run performance in the opener, Stroman and the Cubs should have more than enough to cover as 1.5-run favorites.
Final Cubs-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+128)
