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UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg continues on the main card with a fight between David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira in the bantamweight division. Martinez brings a seven-fight winning streak into his UFC debut this weekend meanwhile, Oliveira is still searching for his first UFC win after losing back-to-back fights. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Martinez-Oliveira prediction and pick.
David Martinez (11-1) made the most of his opportunity on the Contender Series where he dominated Xavier Franklin to a unanimous decision which secured his spot on the UFC roster. Now, Martinez will be looking to keep his momentum going extending his winning streak to eight wins in a row when he takes on Saimon Oliveira in front of his home crowd in Mexico City.
Saimon Oliveira (18-5) hasn't had the best of luck during his UFC run, losing both of his fights inside the octagon to Tony Gravely and, most recently, getting knocked out by Daniel Marcos back in January 2023. Now, Oliveira will look to finally secure his first victory since September 2021 when he takes on Mexico's own David Martinez this weekend.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: David Martinez-Saimon Oliveira Odds
David Martinez: -410
Saimon Oliveira: +320
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
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Why David Martinez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Xavier Franklin – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 9 (9 KO/TKO)
David Martinez is poised to secure a victory over Saimon Oliveira at UFC Mexico City this weekend, thanks to his superior striking and defensive capabilities. Martinez, a Mexico City native, enters the fight on an impressive seven-fight win streak and boasts an 11-1 professional record with an 82% finish rate. His striking output is exceptional, landing 5.27 significant strikes per minute compared to Oliveira's 2.82, and his striking accuracy (49%) surpasses Oliveira’s (41%). Moreover, Martinez absorbs fewer strikes per minute (3.07 vs. 3.91) and has a significantly better striking defense at 66% versus Oliveira’s 48%. These stats suggest Martinez will dominate the stand-up exchanges with precision and volume.
Additionally, Martinez’s impeccable takedown defense (100%) will neutralize Oliveira’s grappling-heavy approach, which relies on takedowns and submissions. While Oliveira has an impressive record of 11 submission wins, his takedown accuracy stands at only 25%, making it unlikely he can bring Martinez to the ground effectively. Martinez’s ability to dictate the pace and keep the fight standing plays into his strengths as a striker. With Oliveira coming off two consecutive losses in the UFC, Martinez’s momentum and well-rounded skill set make him the clear favorite to win in front of his hometown crowd.
Why Saimon Oliveira Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Daniel Marcos – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 16 (5 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Saimon Oliveira has the tools to upset David Martinez at UFC Mexico City this weekend, leveraging his elite grappling and submission prowess. The Brazilian fighter boasts an impressive record of 18-5, with 11 wins by submission and 10 first-round finishes, making him a dangerous opponent in the early stages of the fight. Oliveira’s specialty lies in his guillotine choke, which has accounted for seven of his submission victories. If he can close the distance and drag Martinez into grappling exchanges, Oliveira’s jiu-jitsu expertise could prove decisive. Martinez’s striking-heavy style may leave openings for Oliveira to capitalize on takedowns or clinch work, where he thrives.
Despite Martinez’s undefeated streak since 2021, Oliveira’s experience and ability to finish fights quickly make him a formidable threat. While Martinez has shown excellent takedown defense, Oliveira’s persistence and creativity in finding submissions could wear him down over time. Additionally, Oliveira’s hunger for redemption after two UFC losses may fuel a more aggressive approach. Fighting in enemy territory adds pressure but also motivation for Oliveira to silence the crowd with a statement win. If he can impose his grappling game early and avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet, Oliveira has a strong chance to secure victory via submission or decision.
Final David Martinez-Saimon Oliveira Prediction & Pick
In this intriguing bantamweight clash at UFC Mexico City, David Martinez and Saimon Oliveira present a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Martinez's superior striking and takedown defense will be pitted against Oliveira's submission prowess. While Oliveira's grappling threat is significant, Martinez's home crowd advantage and recent momentum give him the edge. Expect Martinez to utilize his footwork and crisp striking to keep the fight standing, frustrating Oliveira's takedown attempts. As the fight progresses, Martinez's volume and accuracy should accumulate points on the scorecards. Unless Oliveira can secure an early takedown and submission, Martinez is likely to emerge victorious via unanimous decision after three competitive rounds.
Final David Martinez-Saimon Oliveira Prediction & Pick: David Martinez (-410), Over 2.5 Rounds (-125)
