Subscribe
Follow Us
The MLB season continues as the Arizona Diamondbacks look to pick up the win on the road in Miami when they take on the Marlins in the second game of their series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Twins prediction and pick.
Diamondbacks-Marlins Projected Starters
Merrill Kelly vs. Connor Gillespie
Merrill Kelly – (2-1) with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP
Last Start: Kelly picked up the win against the Orioles, allowing three runs, two earned, on three hits and two walks over six-plus innings. He struck out four.
2025 Road Splits: Kelly was roughed up in his only away game, where he tagged for nine runs, three earned, on nine hits with three home runs while only striking out two and walking three in just over three innings against the New York Yankees.
Connor Gillespie – (0-1) with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP
Last Start: Gillispie did not factor into the decision against the Mets on Tuesday. He gave up two runs on three hits and one walk while striking out two over four innings.
2025 Home Splits: Gillespie bounced back after his rough home debut, where he gave up just one earned run on four hits while striking out six in five innings against the New York Mets.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Marlins Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -168
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +142
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How To Watch Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a clear edge heading into Tuesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins, largely due to Merrill Kelly’s consistency and the team’s offensive depth. Kelly, who has established himself as a cornerstone of Arizona’s rotation, is coming off a strong outing against the Orioles where he pitched into the seventh inning, allowing only three runs while retiring 12 consecutive batters during one stretch. The Diamondbacks’ offense, led by Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo, has been productive this season, ranking ninth in MLB in OPS (.786) and boasting a balanced lineup with power and speed.
On the other hand, Miami’s starter Connor Gillispie has shown flashes of potential but lacks consistency. While Miami’s lineup features promising contributors like Xavier Edwards (.397 OBP) and Kyle Stowers (.314 AVG), their overall offensive production ranks near the bottom of the league in OPS (.675), making it difficult to capitalize on scoring opportunities. With Kelly’s proven ability to navigate opposing lineups and Arizona’s offensive firepower, the Diamondbacks are well-positioned to secure a win and continue their push in the competitive NL West.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Connor Gillispie and the Miami Marlins are poised to pull off an upset against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Gillispie has quietly shown promise this season, posting a respectable 3.60 ERA with a solid WHIP of 1.20 across his first few starts. His ability to keep hitters off balance with a mix of pitches, including a slider with exceptional depth and a cutter that induces flyballs, makes him a tough matchup for Arizona’s lineup. In his most recent outing against the Mets, Gillispie allowed just two runs over four innings, showcasing his potential to limit damage against strong offenses. Additionally, Miami’s projected lineup, led by Xavier Edwards and Connor Norby, offers speed and emerging power that could exploit Merrill Kelly’s early-season struggles.
Kelly has been inconsistent in 2025, carrying a concerning 7.20 ERA into this matchup. While he rebounded in his last start against Baltimore, his previous outing saw him surrender nine earned runs in just 3.2 innings against the Yankees. Miami’s lineup may lack star power but has shown flashes of promise with players like Edwards (.397 OBP) setting the table effectively. If Gillispie can deliver another steady performance and Miami’s hitters capitalize on Kelly’s vulnerability, the Marlins have a legitimate chance to secure a road victory and build momentum for their rebuilding season.
Final Diamondbacks-Marlins Prediction & Pick
Tuesday’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins will be a battle of contrasting strengths. Merrill Kelly, despite some early-season struggles, has the experience and pitch mix to stifle Miami’s inconsistent offense. However, Connor Gillispie has quietly impressed for the Marlins, and his ability to induce weak contact could frustrate Arizona’s lineup. The Diamondbacks’ offensive depth, led by Corbin Carroll, gives them an edge, but Miami’s speed on the basepaths could create opportunities against Kelly. Ultimately, this game may come down to bullpen execution. Expect a close contest, but Arizona’s balanced attack should prevail in a victory in Miami.
Final Diamondbacks-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (-168), Over 8.5 (-110)
