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It is an A-10 conference clash as Duquesne faces off with Dayton. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Duquesne-Dayton prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Duquesne comes into the game sitting at 14-9 on the year and 4-6 in conference play. After some early struggles in conference play, they have won four of their last five conference games and five of their last six overall. Still, many of those games were against other teams near the bottom of the conference standings, and the loss was to Davidson, who has just three conference wins this year.
Meanwhile, Dayton comes into the game sitting at 19-4 overall, with a 9-2 record in conference play. That places them a half-game behind Richmond for first place in the A-10 this year. Still, Dayton is coming off just their second conference loss of the year. They lost to Richmond earlier in the season and last time out played against VCU. It was a very low-scoring game, with VCU leading 25-22 at the half. In the second, VCU did not score in the last 5:58 of the game, but would still manage to win 49-47. This is also the second time these two teams will face off. Dayton beat Duquesne on January 12th by a 72-62 final.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Duquesne-Dayton Odds
Duquesne: +8.5 (-102)
Dayton: -8.5 (-120)
Over: 136.5 (-110)
Under: 136.5 (-110)
How to Watch Duquesne vs. Dayton
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Duquesne Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duquesne comes in sitting 108th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings. They are ranked 162nd in adjusted offense efficiency this year while sitting 74th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the year. Duquesne sits 221st in points per game this year while sitting 238th in effective field goal percentage this year. Dae Dae Grant comes in leading the team in points this year. He is scoring 17.3 points per game this year, but shooting just 36.8 percent from the floor this year. Still, he takes care of the ball well with just 1.0 turnovers per game this year.
Sitting second on the team this year is Jimmy Clark III. He comes into the game with 14.9 points per game on the year, while shooting at 41.5 percent. He is also the leader in assists on the season, with 3.7 per game. Still, turnovers have been an issue this year, as he commits 2.8 turnovers per game on the year.
The rebounding has not been solid either. They are 158th in rebounding this year but do sit 98th in offensive rebounds per game. The leader here is Fousseyni Drame, who comes in with 5.9 rebounds per game. Next on the team is David Dixon, who comes in with 4.7 rebounds per game this year.
Duquesne is also 74th in the nation in points allowed per game this year. Further, they are 67th in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage this year. Jimmy Clark III has been great on defense this year. He comes in with 2.1 steals per game this year. Meanwhile, two other players come in with a steal per game. One of those is David Dixon, who also has 1.8 blocks per game.
Why Dayton Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dayton comes in sitting 22nd in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings this year. They have been solid on offense this year, sitting 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while sitting 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While Dayton sits 149th in points per game, they are some of the best in the nation at shooting and moving the ball. Dayton is 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, while sitting seventh in the nation in three-point percentage. Dayton is also 27th in the nation in assists to turnover ratio.
The leader of this offense is DaRon Holmes II. He comes into the game shooting 54.3 percent this year with 19.4 points per game. The forward is primarily an inside scorer, while also playing well on the inside in general. Holmes has 7.7 rebounds per game this year. Second on the team in points is Nate Santos. Santos is also shooting well from three this year. He comes in with 12.0 points per game while shooting 43.0 percent from three this year. Santos also adds 6.6 rebounds per game this year. Further, Koby Brea is playing well. He comes in with 10.5 points per game this year while leading the team with 64 three-pointers made this year. He is shooting 47.8 percent from three this year.
Dayton also gets help from Kobe Elvis and Javon Bennett. Elvis comes in with just 9.3 points per game but has 3.6 assists per game this year. Bennett comes in with 8.9 points per game, but he has 3.7 assists per game this year, which leads the team.
Dayton is also solid on defense this year, coming in 11th in the nation in points allowed per game. While they do sit 206th in rebounds per game. They allow just a 46.4 percent effective field goal percentage, which is 30th in the nation. DaRon Holmes is also a huge part of the defense, coming in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Javon Bennett also adds 1.3 steals per game this year.
Final Duquesne-Dayton Prediction & Pick
While Dayton struggled heavily on offense last time out, the defense was very good. They are now going against a much weaker defense in Duquesne. Further, Duquesne does not shoot the ball well and is going to struggle to score in this game. Take Dayton with the easy win in this one.
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Final Duquesne-Dayton Prediction & Pick: Dayton -8.5 (-120)
