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We're back for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 96 as the Main Card finally gets underway with this opening bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. UFC veterans will square off for the first time as Xtreme Couture's Edmen Shahbazyan will take on Kill Cliff's Gerald Meerschaert. Check out our UFC odds series for our Shahbazyan-Meerschaert prediction and pick.
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4) has gone 6-4 during his UFC tenure since 2018. He's an original Contender Series alum and will be looking for improvements after going 2-3 in his last five fights. Still, he got the TKO-win over AJ Dobson in the first round of his last appearance, so Shahbazyan will look to continue riding this current momentum. He stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.
Gerald Meerschaert (36-17) has gone 11-9 under the UFC since 2016. He's been up and down for most of his UFC career and he's gone 3-3 over his last six fights. He's also coming in following a recent win over Bryan Barberena, finishing with a signature submission and looking to do the same in this fight. Meerschaert stands 6'1″ with a 77.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 96 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 96 Odds: Edmen Shahbazyan-Gerald Meerschaert Odds
Edmen Shahbazyan: -290
Gerald Meerschaert: +235
Over 1.5 rounds: -115
Under 1.5 rounds: -115
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Why Edmen Shahbazyan Will Win
Edmen Shahbazyan will make yet another Fight Night appearance and his last performance over AJ Dobson could have been his best fight of recent memory. He's a well-rounded striker and grappler, but he does his best work on the feet when striking from close range and using his dirty boxing. He was very patient against a dangerous striker like Dobson and waiting for the perfect opening to open his boxing up. He's also a great physical matchup against Meerschaert and will have youth on his side when dealing with the veteran.
Edmen Shahbazyan is an active grappler in his own right and actually averages more takedown attempts per fight than his opponent. While only one of those has resulted in a submission win, Shahbazyan is very smart about defending himself on the ground and will be fully aware of the submission capabilities from his opponent. Expect Shahbazyan to welcome the clinch against Meerschaert as he'll have a better chance to work his knees and elbows. Don't be surprised if he initiates the wrestling first and tries to compromise his opponent with his ground-and-pound.
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Why Gerald Meerschaert Will Win
Gerald Meerschaert continues to be a tough fight within the division and his cage time alone will serve him greatly during this fight. His opponent is known for his knockout prowess, so Meerschaert may need to take a defensive stance at points throughout this fight. He'll have his world-class jiu jitsu to back him up if the fight ends up hitting the ground, so don't expect him to back down from Shahbazyan's forward pressure. Meerschaert looked to be in great shape during his last win and there's no doubt he'll be chasing the submission victory once again.
Gerald Meerschaert will have to remain diligent about moving his head off the center line and making Shahbazyan whiff with his punches. We've seen his opponent tire in the past, so Meerschaert could benefit if he's able to drag this fight out into the third round. From there, we've seen Meerschaert turn the tide in previous fights and if Shahbazyan is beginning to struggle with his breathing in the slightest, it could open the door for GM3 to take his back and lock in the submission win.
Final Edmen Shahbazyan-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick
This will be a high-level scrap between two UFC vets that have been around the block. Despite his lengthy stint with the UFC, we often forget Edmen Shahbazyan is just 26 years old and still has levels of development ahead of him. We're expecting him to take this next step as he tries to finish a true veteran of the game in Gerald Meerschaert.
Edmen Shahbazyan will have to damage Meerschaert early to be in control during this fight. If GM3 manages to hang around and stay competitive into the third round, his grappling could be enough to edge Shahbazyan on the scorecards and get the win. Still, we like the upside from Shahbazyan to win by knockout and he's typically solid in defending himself during the grappling exchanges.
For our final prediction, we'll have to roll with Edmen Shahbazyan to get the win in this one. I believe we have yet to see the best version of him and given his development, this should be a dominant performance from him if he's able to stay out of trouble and fight his style of fight. Let's roll with Edmen Shahbazyan to get the win.
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Final Edmen Shahbazyan-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan (-290); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-115)
