Thursday Night Football features a pair of NFC South foes as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Falcons-Buccaneers prediction and pick.
The Falcons come into the game sitting at 4-9, which is third in the NFC South. The team has been struggling lately. They have lost seven of their last eight games, with the only win being a 24-10 victory over the New Orleans Saints. In their latest outing, the Falcons were embarrassed by the Seattle Seahawks, leading to speculation that Raheem Morris may be on the hot seat. It was a tight first half, with the two teams tied at six going into the break. The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff of the second half 100 yards for a touchdown, and from there dominated the game, winning 37-9.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 7-6, which ties them at the top of the NFC South. Like the Falcons, the Bucs are not playing their best as of late. They have lost four of their last five, including falling to the Saints 24-20 in their last game. This will be the second time these two teams are meeting this season. The first resulted in a 23-20 victory for the Saints on the road in Week 1.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds
Falcons: +4.5 (-115)
Buccaneers: -4.5 (-105)
Over: 44.5 (-115)
Under: 44.5 (-105)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Key Injuries
Falcons- WR Drake London (Knee- DNP), DL David Onyemata (Foot- LP), G Chris Lindstrom (Foot- LP), DL Brandon Dorlus (Groin- LP), CB AJ Terrell (Neck- LP), Edge Jalon Walker (Quad- LP), TE Kyle Pitts (Knee- LP), WR Khadarel Hodge (Shoulder- LP)
Buccaneers- LB SirVocea Dennis (Hip- DNP), TE Cade Otton (Knee- DNP), S Tykee Smith (Neck- DNP), LB Hasson Reddick (Ankle- LP), WR Mike Evans (Collarbone- LP), WR Chris Godwin (Fibula- FP), RB Bucky Irving (Shoulder- FP), WR Jalen McMillan (Neck- LP), QB Baker Mayfield (Shoulder- FP)
Falcons vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
– The Falcons are 5-8 ATS this year. They are 3-3 ATS on the road this season.
– The Buccaneers are also 5-8 ATS this year. They have not covered in each of their last five games, and just 1-5 against the spread at home.
– The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread when an underdog this year.
– The Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS when a favorite this season.
– The over is 6-6-1 this year in Falcons games, but has been the correct side in five of the last six games.
– The over is 7-6 this year in Buccaneers games.
Keys to Falcons vs Buccaneers
If the Falcons are going to come away with the upset in this game, it starts on the ground. The team is 12th in the NFL in rushing yards per game and tenth in rushing scores per game. This is led by Bijan Robinson. Robinson is fourth in the league in rushing this year with 1,081 yards while having scored five touchdowns. The Falcons' back has been solid as of late, running for 70 or more yards in each of the last five games. He is joined in the backfield by Tyler Allgeier, who has run for 378 yards and eight scores this year. With Michael Penix out of the lineup, placing Kirk Cousins in at QB, plus injuries to Drake London and Kyle Pitts, the passing game will struggle. This is going to mean Robinson needs to carry the load for the offense.
Still, the Bucs have a solid run defense. They allow just 100.6 yards per game, which is good for eighth in the NFL. SirVocea Dennis has not practiced this week with a hip injury. He has been a vital part of the defense, with 84 tackles and seven tackles for a loss. If he is unable to go, that could be a major win for the Falcons' running game. They will still have to deal with the likes of Lavonte David and Vita Vea in the run game, but dealing with them while not having to stop Dennis would be a major win.
Meanwhile, the Bucs need to get their passing game going. The offense as a whole has not been great this year while dealing with plenty of injuries. They are 17th in points per game while sitting 22nd in yards per game. The pass offense is where the most improvement is needed. The pass offense is 20th in the NFL this year. Baker Mayfield has led the offense. He has passed for 2,722 yards with 20 touchdowns this season. His top target has been Emeka Egbuka, who has 806 yards and six touchdowns. Mayfield could also be getting a top target back as well. Mike Evans has not played since October and has not had a reception since September.
They are playing against a solid pass defense of the Falcons, which is ninth in opponent passing yards per game. Further, the defense is third in quarterback sack rate this year. With Mayfield dealing with an injury, the Falcons will need to get pressure on him to help the secondary out. Atlanta has struggled with bigger wide receivers in the past, and with AJ Terrell limited in practice this week, the pass rush is going to be a key part of slowing down the Bucs.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick
Neither team has been great against the spread overall this year. The Bucs have not covered in five straight games, though. Moreover, they have not been close to covering in many of those five games. The offense for the Bucs has not been moving well this year, but the Falcons' offense has struggled as of late as well. It may come down to a few big plays in this game. The Bucs have made more big plays this year, and with the possibility of Mike Evans coming back to the lineup, there will be more big play opportunities. Expect the game to remain tight, but the Bucs to take the win.
Final Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick: Buccaneers -4.5 (-105) and Under 44.5 (-105)
