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Bowl season is among us! The North Texas Mean Green (7-6) face off against the Boise State Broncos (9-4) in the Frisco Bowl on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a North Texas-Boise State prediction and pick.
North Texas is 7-6 and finished in second place in the Conference USA after losing to UTSA in the title game. The Mean Green notably beat Western Kentucky during the regular season – their only victory over a team with a winning record. North Texas is 7-6 against the spread while 62% of their games have gone over.
Boise State is 9-4 and finished in second place in the Mountain West after losing to Fresno State in the title game. The Broncos have wins against Air Force and Fresno State but did lose against UTEP – who North Texas beat. Boise State is 6-6-1 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under.
Here are the North Texas-Boise State college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Frisco Bowl Odds: North Texas-Boise State Odds
North Texas: +10.5 (-110)
Boise State: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 59.5 (-110)
Under: 59.5 (-110)
Why North Texas Could Cover The Spread
North Texas put together a solid season despite their struggles out of conference. Despite just a 7-6 record, the Mean Green went 6-2 in conference play to propel them to a bowl bid. They notably defeated UTEP whom Boise State lost to. North Texas struggled away from their home stadium, going 2-5 in away games. That being said, the Frisco Bowl takes place only 30 miles from North Texas' campus – something to keep in mind before making a North Texas-Boise State prediction. The Mean Green have a potent offense that ranks 36th in passing offense (262 YPG) and 24th in rushing offense (202 YPG). Defensively, North Texas had the 115th-ranked pass defense (272 YPG) and 107th-ranked run defense (188 YPG).
Their offense revolves around the oldest quarterback in Division I Football, junior Austin Aune. The 29-year-old was originally a baseball player and was good enough to be selected in the second round of the 2012 MLB draft. Then he sputtered out after six minor league seasons, but eventually found his way to North Texas and has since put up incredible numbers. Aune set the school record for passing touchdowns with 32 (8th in FBS) and additionally threw for 3,309 yards (17th in FBS).
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The Mean Green have a number of capable options on the outside, but junior receiver Jyaire Shorter is their big-play threat. He caught just 22 passes this season, but those went for 598 yards (27.2 yards per catch) and 10 touchdowns. He may not get loose for many receptions but if he does, rest assured he'll be gunning for six. However, look for junior Roderic Burns and his team-leading 37 receptions to be involved early and often. In the backfield, North Texas relies primarily on sophomores Ikaika Ragsdale (661 yards and five touchdowns) and Ayo Adeyi (740 yards and four touchdowns).
Why Boise State Could Cover The Spread
Boise State was the favorite to win their conference after finishing 8-0 and winning the Mountain Division. Furthermore, they beat West Division winner Fresno State by 20 in the regular season but the Bulldogs got their revenge in the title game and denied the Broncos of a major bowl game. As their consolation prize, the Broncos match up with a North Texas team who recently fired their head coach and struggled outside of conference play. The Broncos have the 109th-ranked passing offense (195 YPG) and the 38th-ranked rushing offense (187 YPG). Defensively, the Broncos rank 5th in pass defense (160 YPG) and 24th in rush defense (121 YPG).
Boise State's offense is clearly tailored toward the run game. They are led by freshman quarterback Taylor Green. A native of nearby Lewisville, the Frisco Bowl will be somewhat of a homecoming for the 6'6″ QB. While his passing stats aren't anything special, Green is incredibly dangerous as a runner. He ran for 467 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Additionally, he flashed his big play ability with a 91-yard touchdown in the final week of the regular season.
Outside of Green, Boise State relies on a dual-backfield approach to fuel its high-powered run game. Junior George Holani led the way as he rushed for 1,133 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry and is the clear first option. That being said freshman Ashton Jeanty is a formidable change-of-pace back. Jeanty received just half the amount of work as Holani. He made his touches count, however, and rushed for 643 yards and six touchdowns. Both backs figure to be heavily involved against North Texas' terrible rush defense.
Final North Texas-Boise State Prediction & Pick
Boise State is the superior team, but in a game that should be a sea of Green, I like North Texas to keep things close thanks to their prolific offense.
Final North Texas-Boise State Prediction & Pick: North Texas Mean Green (-110)
