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On Monday, the Cleveland Guardians will begin a three-game series with the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. It's a Labor Day showdown as we share our MLB odds series and make a Guardians-Royals prediction and pick.
Guardians-Royals Projected Starters
Gavin Williams vs. Michael Wacha
Gavin Williams (2-7) with a 4.99 ERA
Last Start: Williams went five innings in his last outing, allowing two earned runs and three hits while striking out six and walking two in a loss to the Royals.
2024 Road Splits: Williams has been better on the road, going 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA over six starts away from Progressive Field.
Michael Wacha (11-6) with a 3.50 ERA
Last Start: Wacha was inconsistent in his last outing, going six innings but allowing five earned runs and nine hits while striking out seven in a no-decision against the Guardians.
2024 Home Splits: Wacha has been better at home, going 6-1 with a 3.13 ERA over 11 starts at Kauffman Stadium.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Royals Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+162)
Moneyline: +100
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-196)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
How to Watch Guardians vs. Royals
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City and Bally Sports Great Lakes
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians led the Royals by just 3 1/2 games coming into this one. Unfortunately, what was a large lead has withered down, especially after losing the series to the Royals last week. Cleveland needs its offense to deliver.
Steven Kwan is the leadoff hitter and must set the pace. So far, he is batting .283 with 11 RBIs and 20 runs over 35 games against the Royals. Jose Ramirez enjoys facing the Royals. He is hitting .281 with 167 hits, including 31 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 105 runs in 162 career games against the Royals. Meanwhile, Josh Naylor hopes to contribute and bring some punch to this lineup to help Cleveland overcome Kansas City.
Williams has not had a quality start in four starts. Now, he must find a way to pitch to a dangerous lineup. When Williams finishes, he will turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball. Emmanuel Chase is the best closer in baseball, registering a record of 4-2 with a 0.71 ERA and 40 saves in 43 chances.
The Guardians will cover the spread if the offense can score early and build a lead while preventing Wacha from settling into a groove. Then, they need Williams to hit his pitches.
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Royals trailed the Guardians by 3 1/2 games coming into this one. Amazingly, they have soared from the ashes and are contending for the AL Central crown. Kansas City certainly has the hitters to execute, and they need them to continue raking at the plate.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the best hitter on this team. However, he has struggled against the Guardians, hitting just .205 with 26 hits, one home run, six RBIs, and 12 runs over 32 games against them in his career. Witt improved those marks last week, going 5 for 15 with two home runs, two RBIs, and three runs. Now, he hopes to keep the momentum going. Salvador Perez is one of the better contact hitters in this lineup. Yet, he is hitting just .242 with 19 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 56 runs over 144 career games against Cleveland. Vinnie Pasquantino is another hitter who can make an impact. Therefore, look for him to find a way to get on base and help his team thrive.
Wacha has had five quality starts in the last six games and hopes to add another one. When Wacha finishes, he will turn it over to the 11th-best bullpen in baseball. However, no closer is established, as neither James McArthur nor Lucas Erceg has claimed it, and this might become an issue in this game or down the line.
The Royals will cover the spread if their lineup can clobber together some hits and formulate big innings again to establish an early lead. Then, they need Wacha to deliver and hit his stride with his pitches while avoiding serious contact with the Guardians' bats.
Final Guardians-Royals Prediction & Pick
The Royals have dominated this series, going 7-3 against the Guardians through 10 games, including 3-1 at home. Moreover, the Royals are 6-4 against the run line against the Guardians. The Guardians are 69-68 against the run line, while the Royals are 75-63. Additionally, the Guardians are 36-33 against the run line on the road, while the Royals are 38-31 against the run line at home, which is the best in baseball. This is a classic rock meets hard place scenario. But we trust Wacha more to get the job done and help the Royals cover the run line.
Final Guardians-Royals Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-196)
