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In the UFC's return to Australia, welterweights Jake Matthews (20-7) and Francisco Prado (12-2) open the UFC 312 main card. It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Matthews-Prado prediction and pick.
Matthews, 30, will be the hometown favorite as a native of Melbourne. ‘The Celtic Kid' has alternated wins and losses for the past four years, most recently coming off a decision win over Phil Rowe at UFC 302. Matthews will be fighting in front of an Australian crowd for the first time since 2020.
Prado, 22, will make his UFC welterweight debut in the fight. Prado is just 1-2 in the UFC, all at lightweight. He is coming off a one-sided decision loss to Daniel Zellhuber at UFC Mexico City in February 2024.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Jake Matthews-Francisco Prado Odds
Jake Matthews: -245
Francisco Prado: +200
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Jake Matthews Will Win
Not only will Matthews fight with a one-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, but he has always been adept at managing distance and range. His elite range control has led to a superb 61 percent striking defense. That will be difficult for a young fighter like Prado, who is moving up a weight class, to overcome.
When Matthews is allowed to strike freely, he is one of the most underrated welterweights. Generational talent Michael Morales was able to out-point him on the feet, but Matthews is otherwise 10-2 in the UFC when his opponent is unable to accrue two minutes of control time. Prado has never completed a takedown in the UFC.
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Matthews has tended to lose against pressure wrestlers, which is not who Prado is. Although Prado has four submission victories, none were against fighters even remotely near the UFC level. Of his four submission victories, only one came against an opponent with a winning record.
Why Francisco Prado Will Win
If there is a fighter a step below Neil Magny as the welterweight gatekeeper, it is Matthews. The Aussie typically beats opponents near the bottom of the UFC roster and loses to rising contenders. At just 22, the best of Prado has yet to come, making his odds of developing into a contender still fairly wide.
Prado has never won a fight by decision, bringing a 100 percent finish rate to the table. His power, which should only increase with a lessened weight cut, will be the key to a victory. The last time Matthews fought a powerful striker, Matthew Semelsberger floored him three times en route to an upset victory. Matthews can be difficult to hit but does not have the best chin when he does.
Prado is still far from a finished product but is arguably the wildest fighter Matthews has fought in years. He lost nearly every minute against Zellhuber but never failed to walk forward and swing with reckless abandon. Matthews is a veteran, but one who is semi-prone to lazy exits in close-quarter exchanges, particularly when he is ahead.
Final Jake Matthews-Francisco Prado Prediction & Pick
Matthews may not be a star in the typical sense, but he will look like one in front of the Australian crowd. There are not a ton of Australians in the UFC, making the ones who are beloved by the local fanbase. Matthews has typically returned the favor, going 14-3 in his career in Australia, including 7-3 in the UFC.
Prado has the power to threaten anyone but has not yet shown the ability to set up a finish against a fighter like Matthews. Of his 12 career victories, Prado has just five wins over opponents with a winning record. His lone UFC win over Ottman Azaitar — who is on a three-fight losing streak over the past two years — has not aged well.
Without much of a wrestling threat, Matthews will be in control of where the fight goes. The last time he fought a lightweight moving up to 170 pounds, Matthews dusted off Darrius Flowers in seven minutes. Prado, however, has never been finished in his career. Matthews is an underrated submission threat on the ground, but Prado showed off enough in his promotional debut loss to Jamie Mullarkey to believe he is a better defensive grappler.
Final Jake Matthews-Francisco Prado Prediction & Pick: Jake Matthews by Decision (+110)
