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Jelena Ostapenko takes on Naomi Osaka. Our US Open odds series has our Ostapenko-Osaka prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Ostapenko Osaka.
This is a showcase matchup at the US Open. It's a battle of major champions. It's a clash between two players known for being inconsistent. Jelena Ostapenko is the classic hit-or-miss tennis player. She goes big for her shots all the time and is like an avid gambler at a roulette wheel who says, “Let it ride!” She goes for broke and lets the chips fall where they may. That's how she rolls, and that's how she remains, seven years after winning the 2017 French Open. Smarter players would learn how to calibrate their shots a little more and play with more margin in specific situations, but Ostapenko believes completely in the power game and going big. She can win a set 6-1 and then lose the next set 6-1, because it's often all or nothing with her. So many of her matches veer wildly from one extreme to the other. She goes from good to awful to good in a lot of her matches.
Naomi Osaka's inconsistency is more about her life journey. Osaka has dealt with mental health challenges and has spoken publicly about them. The strain of life as a public figure isn't something every young athlete handles the same way or with the same level of ease. Public burdens and responsibilities fell hard upon Osaka's shoulders. She struggled with that. She has also faced the challenge of returning to supreme fitness and focus as an athlete after giving birth to a child and becoming a mother. That's not easy to juggle, either.
When Osaka very nearly beat World No. 1 Iga Swiatek at the French Open earlier this year, many people in tennis thought Osaka would be a dangerous force in the summer hardcourt season on her one good surface. (She has never been good on clay or grass.) Yet, that has not materialized. Osaka did not make deep runs in Canada or Cincinnati leading up to the U.S. Open. How well she will play is a big, open question.
Here are the Ostapenko-Osaka U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Jelena Ostapenko-Naomi Osaka
Game Spread:
Ostapenko +1.5: -110
Osaka -1.5: -120
Moneyline:
Ostapenko +116
Osaka -140
To Win First Set:
Ostapenko +114
Osaka -138
Total Games In Match:
Over 22.5: -106
Under 22.5: -126
Total Games Won:
Ostapenko over 12.5: +120
Ostapenko under 12.5: -160
Osaka over 12.5: -102
Osaka under 12.5: -132
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: Approx. 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT — match could start 30 minutes earlier or later depending on previous match
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: (Click here for free trial)
Why Jelena Ostapenko Will Win
Ostapenko doesn't have a better overall resume than Osaka does. Osaka has four major titles, Ostapenko only one. However, over the past two years, Osaka has been either off the grid or not able to invest too much energy into tennis. Ostapenko has not achieved spectacular results, but she has had her moments and has made some medium-length runs at big tournaments. Ostapenko is, in 2024, a better tennis player than Osaka and has more match play under her belt. She is more likely to be in rhythm in this match and ultimately win.
Why Naomi Osaka Will Win
Osaka is not consistent, but she just has to win one match. Ostapenko blows hot and cold. Osaka just needs her opponent to have an off day, and that's the whole ballgame.
Final Jelena Ostapenko-Naomi Osaka Prediction & Pick
You can be very creative and bold in betting on this match. First of all, if you think this match will go three sets, you could make plays on all three of the following props: Ostapenko over 12.5 games won, Osaka over 12.5 games won, and over 22.5 total games played. You can also hedge by betting on one player to win the first set and the other player to win under 12.5 games. Keep in mind that if you lose the first-set bet, the other player would then be in position to hit the under 12.5 games prop by winning the second set, as long as that player doesn't win seven games in either set.
Our recommendation: Pick Ostapenko to win the first set. Why sweat out a three-set match?
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Final Jelena Ostapenko-Naomi Osaka Prediction & Pick: Ostapenko to win first set
