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Jessica Pegula takes on Karolina Muchova. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Pegula Muchova prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Pegula Muchova.
If you have been following the 2024 women's tennis season closely, you know that Jessica Pegula did not make any real impact at all on tour in the first half of the season, going through Wimbledon. She reached the quarterfinals of the 1,000-point tournament in Miami in late March. That was her best result at one of the bigger events on tour through July. She had some injuries which slowed her down at multiple points in the season, so it's not as though she was endlessly failing to play well. She missed a number of events and struggled to get healthy. In August, she attained full health, and we finally began to see the player we have seen for much of the previous few years.
Wednesday night, Pegula delivered a convincing performance in a win over World No. 1 Iga Swiatek.
While it is true that Swiatek struggled and looked uncomfortable on court, Pegula had a lot to do with that. Pegula was hitting the ball very cleanly and was playing with supreme confidence, focused on each point instead of getting burdened by pressure, as she did in her previous major quarterfinal losses. Pegula really does seem to have made a breakthrough here, healthy and confident and — crucially — not physically worn down due to the fact that her injuries earlier in the season limited her overall workload on tour. She looks fresh in a tournament (the U.S. Open) when a lot of tour pros are feeling the weight of all the accumulated tennis they have played since January. Pegula does not have nearly as many miles on the odometer, and it is proving to be a big advantage.
Now Pegula faces Karolina Muchova, who has reached a major final (the 2023 French Open) and has made the semifinals in back-to-back U.S. Opens. Muchova is every tennis player's favorite tennis player, in the sense that she is especially artistic and creative on court. Muchova has had a long injury history, which is why a lot of casual fans might not know as much about her as other players who play more regularly on tour each year.
Here are the Pegula-Muchova U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Jessica Pegula-Karolina Muchova
Game Spread:
Pegula -2.5: -112
Muchova +2.5: -118
Moneyline:
Pegula: -162
Muchova: +136
To Win First Set:
Pegula: -142
Muchova: +118
Total Games In Match:
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Over 22.5: -110
Under 22.5: -120
Total Games Won:
Pegula over 12.5: -112
Pegula under 12.5: -118
Muchova over 12.5: +118
Muchova under 12.5: -158
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET/6:15 p.m. PT — could be 45 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous match
TV: ESPN/ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Jessica Pegula Will Win
Karolina Muchova's injury history could come into play in this match. Muchova's body is made of glass; her stop-and-start career has limited her ability to compete for big titles. She has reached the semis at this U.S. Open after making the semis a year ago. In between, she had wrist surgery. It shows how amazingly talented she is, but it also shows that she's always a heartbeat away from another injury problem.
Late in her quarterfinal win over Beatriz Haddad Maia, Muchova did seem to be physically struggling. Crucially, this Thursday semifinal is just one day after that Wednesday quarterfinal. Muchova and Pegula do not have a day off between their quarterfinal and semifinal, unlike Emma Navarro and Aryna Sabalenka, who played their quarterfinal matches on Tuesday and got a day off. Because Muchova doesn't have that extra day to physically recover, Pegula owns a clear advantage which factors into our betting calculus.
Why Karolina Muchova Will Win
Karolina Muchova is the most brilliantly talented shotmaker on tour. Injuries have hounded her, but when healthy, she is a luminously gifted player who can compete with the very best. She nearly won the French Open last year and has made a number of major semifinals in recent years, this one being the latest. If her body holds up, she can beat Pegula and anyone else on tour.
Final Jessica Pegula-Karolina Muchova Prediction & Pick
We think the lack of a day off will hurt Muchova and make Pegula a great betting play in multiple props: match, first set, and game spread.
Final Jessica Pegula-Karolina Muchova Prediction & Pick: Pegula moneyline, Pegula to win first set, Pegula -2.5 games
