Subscribe
Follow Us
UFC 312: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2 continues on the main card with a fight between Jimmy Crute and Rodolfo Bellato in the light heavyweight division. Crute comes into this losing three out of his last four fights meanwhile, Bellato was successful in his UFC debut with a second-round TKO victory. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Crute-Bellato prediction and pick.
Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) is making a comeback after briefly retiring after losing three out of his last four fights and recently getting submitted against Alonzo Menifield back in 2023. Now, Crute will look to turn back time and finally get back into the win column when he takes on Rodolfo Bellato this weekend at UFC 312.
Rodolfo Bellato (12-2) secured his contract on his second opportunity on the Contender Series with a second-round knockout and then kept his hot streak with a blistering knockout of Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut. Now, Bellato will be looking to make a statement against his stiffest competition to date when he takes on Jimmy Crute this weekend at UFC 312.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Jimmy Crute-Rodolfo Bellato Odds
Jimmy Crute: +136
Rodolfo Bellato: -162
Over 1.5 rounds: -140
Under 1.5 rounds: +110
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Jimmy Crute Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Alonzo Menifield – SUB R2
- Last 5: 1-3-1
- Finishes: 9 (5 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Jimmy Crute’s elite grappling and veteran savvy position him to derail Rodolfo Bellato’s momentum at UFC 312. Despite a 19-month layoff, Crute (12-4-1) holds a decisive edge in wrestling, averaging 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes—a skill Bellato (12-2) has yet to face in the UFC. The Australian’s black belt in BJJ and four submission wins, including two kimuras against UFC-level competition, provide tools to exploit Bellato’s tendency to brawl recklessly. While Bellato boasts a 61% striking accuracy and a four-fight KO streak, his defensive gaps were exposed when Ihor Potieria nearly finished him in their 2023 bout. Crute’s disciplined top control, honed in wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (eight takedowns) and Paul Craig, can neutralize Bellato’s aggression.
Bellato’s porous 44% strike defense plays into Crute’s tactical resurgence. The Aussie’s refined focus post-hiatus—emphasizing cage-cutting footwork and chain wrestling—mirrors his 2020 peak when he dominated strikers like Modestas Bukauskas. Though Bellato thrives in chaos, Crute’s durability (one UFC knockout loss since 2021) and cardio (five career third-round wins) will outlast early storms. Expect Crute to drag the Brazilian into deep waters, leveraging ground-and-pound before hunting a fight-ending armbar or kimura as Bellato fades.
Why Rodolfo Bellato Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ihor Potieria – KO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Rodolfo Bellato’s explosive striking and momentum position him to overwhelm Jimmy Crute at UFC 312. Bellato (12-2) lands 6.47 significant strikes per minute at a 61% accuracy rate—nearly double Crute’s output—and leverages a 3-inch reach advantage to batter opponents from range. His four-fight finishing streak, capped by a comeback TKO over Ihor Potieria, highlights his durability and killer instinct when hurt. In contrast, Crute (12-4-1) hasn’t won since 2020 and absorbs 3.04 strikes per minute with a porous defense, leaving him vulnerable to Bellato’s power. The Australian’s 19-month layoff and mental fatigue—he admitted feeling “scattered” and “exhausted” pre-hiatus—raise questions about his readiness for Bellato’s aggression.
Crute’s grappling—historically his strength—faces a stiff test. While he averages 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, Bellato defends 100% of attempts and thrives in chaos. Crute’s recent losses expose defensive gaps, notably his submission collapse against Alonzo Menifield. Bellato’s pressure will force Crute into reactive mode, where his looping strikes and fatigued cardio falter. Expect Bellato to exploit Crute’s slow starts and fading durability, closing with a second-round TKO to extend his UFC rise.
Final Jimmy Crute-Rodolfo Bellato Prediction & Pick
Jimmy Crute’s grappling pedigree and tactical adjustments position him to defy the odds against Rodolfo Bellato at UFC 312. Despite Bellato’s 6.47 significant strikes per minute and 61% accuracy, Crute’s 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes (57% accuracy) and elite scrambling threaten to neutralize the Brazilian’s striking edge. Bellato’s 100% takedown defense remains untested against high-level wrestlers, and his defensive lapses—absorbing 5.90 strikes per minute—leave openings for Crute’s clinch work and ground-and-pound. Though Crute (12-4-1) is winless since 2021, his 19-month layoff allowed technical refinements, while Bellato’s (12-2) UFC wins over unranked opponents lack the same pedigree as Crute’s bouts against top-15 contenders.
Bellato’s power and volume could overwhelm early, but Crute’s durability (one UFC KO loss) and cardio (five third-round wins) tilt the fight toward later rounds. The Australian’s BJJ black belt and submission threat (four career finishes) add layers to his grappling-heavy approach, exploiting Bellato’s inexperience in prolonged scrambles. Expect Crute to weather early storms, secure takedowns, and grind out a decision or late submission, capitalizing on Bellato’s defensive fatigue. At +136, Crute’s veteran savvy offers compelling value.
Final Jimmy Crute-Rodolfo Bellato Prediction & Pick: Jimmy Crute (+136), Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
