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We're back for another UFC Louisville betting prediction and pick as we head to the Bantamweight (135) Division for this next bout. We've got an exciting one on our hands as Minnesota's John Castaneda will take on Peru's Daniel Marcos. Both men are riding hot streaks ahead of this one. Check out our UFC odds series for our Castaneda-Marcos prediction and pick.
John Castaneda (21-6) has gone 4-2 under the UFC banner since 2020. He's a product of Dana White's Contender Series and he comes into this fight with back-to-back unanimous decision victories. His most recent win over Kyung Ho Kang was particularly impressive and he'll be looking to build upon that momentum here. Castaneda stands 5'6″ with a 71-inch reach.
Daniel Marcos (15-0) has remained perfect in the UFC with a 2-0 record thus far. He's notched two impressive wins and has had a number of fights fall through at the last minute. His last bout against Aoriqileng was ruled a ‘No Contest' following an accidental groin strike, so he's hoping to find his rhythm once again and keep his spotless record intact. Marcos stands 5'7″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: John Castaneda-Daniel Marcos Odds
John Castaneda: +100
Daniel Marcos: -120
Over 2.5 rounds: -245
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why John Castaneda Will Win
John Castaneda fought his most dangerous opponent in his last fight, unanimously beating Kyung Ho Kang on the scorecards seven months ago. He comes into this fight with a 4-2 streak and fully confident in his abilities against a relative newcomer like Daniel Marcos. Castaneda also has his sights set on the Bantamweight rankings and is motivated to claim a top-15 spot with a win here. He'll have a slight size advantage over Marcos and could be a good matchup with his willingness to change levels and control the fight from the mat. Look for Castaneda to be the more willing grappler of these two fighters.
John Castaneda is one of the few bantamweights that can stand in front of Daniel Marcos and match his output shot-for-shot. He also has a solid chin and willing to take hits in the pocket. If Castaneda can absorb some punches early, it'll be an easy gauge to see whether he has to respect the power coming back from Marcos. If Castaneda can stand in there and take the hits, he should be able to pour it on in the later rounds and cause more damage than his opponent can.
Why Daniel Marcos Will Win
Daniel Marcos had a sour lead-up to his last fight as three bouts were cancelled due to weight misses from opponents and issues with his own VISA. His last bout against Aoriqileng was much-anticipated, but ended in disappointing fashion when Marcos accidentally hit his opponent in the groin. It ended in yet another cloudy result and Daniel Marcos is itching to see his first win since around this time last year. He's one of the more technical and explosive strikers in this division with his fast hands and leg kicks. His stand-up game has a ton of promise and it'll be exciting to see what new wrinkles he added to his game.
Daniel Marcos was very successful during his fight against Aoriqileng, but he'll have to limit the mental mistakes and putting himself in an early hole. He's had trouble with unintentional fouls in the past, so this fight will be about cleaning his offense up and stringing together combinations. If he can show some growth from his last performance and combine it with his crisp striking, we should see him pick up the victory here.
Final John Castaneda-Daniel Marcos Prediction & Pick
This fight could be a sneaky ‘Fight of the Night' contender as both men are more than willing to stand and trade this whole fight. John Castaneda is supremely confident in himself after a small winning streak and he fully intends on ending this fight inside of the distance. Daniel Marcos, on the other hand, has shown small glimpses of striking greatness and will be hungry to get his first win in a year after a number of fizzled bouts and a ‘No Contest.”
Ultimately, this fight will be fireworks from start to finish and it's hard to call which fighter will land the cleaner shots here. John Castaneda is certainly the more willing grappler here, but Daniel Marcos has shown a great ability to stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing.
For our prediction, we're going to roll with Daniel Marcos to get the win in this fight. He's the cleaner striker on the feet and he's able to make more adjustments in his style to adjust with the fight. Still, John Castaneda stands a great shot if he can turn this into a dog fight. Let's take Daniel Marcos for our final prediction.
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Final John Castaneda-Daniel Marcos Prediction & Pick: Daniel Marcos (-120)
