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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic will finally reach its apex when we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the long-awaited Main Event. The Heavyweight belt will be on the line as Champion Jon Jones defends his title against heavyweight legend and former champion Stipe Miocic. Check out our UFC odds series for our Jones-Miocic prediction and pick.
Jon Jones (27-1) has gone 21-1-0-1 during his legendary run in the UFC. After taking down Ciryl Gane in relatively simple fashion, Jones will look to cement his legacy as the greatest mixed martial artist of all time when he defends against who many consider to be the best heavyweight ever. Jones stands 6'4″ with an 84.5-inch reach.
Stipe Miocic (20-4) has gone 14-4 since 2011 en route to becoming Heavyweight Champion. He recaptured the belt following his saga with Daniel Cormier, but notably relinquished to Francis Ngannou in his last fight over three years ago. Now, he looks to hand Jones his first real loss of his career. Miocic stands 6'5″ with an 80-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 309 Odds: Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic Odds
Jon Jones: -625
Stipe Miocic: +455
Over 2.5 rounds: +105
Under 2.5 rounds: -135
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Why Jon Jones Will Win
Jon Jones has hinted that this will be the last fight of his historic career and if he wins, he fully believes he'll go down as the greatest MMA fighter of all time. He smashed any doubts in his heavyweight debut by submitting Ciryl Gane without breaking a sweat. He's still facing the most decorated fighter in the division, but Jones seems to still be at the top of his peak physical game. It'll be interesting to see whether he takes a grappling or traditional striking approach in this one.
Jon Jones laid out his ideal scenario for his career after Saturday 💪#UFC309 l Saturday l 10 PM ET l ESPN+ PPV 🍿 https://t.co/MHkYEASxGD pic.twitter.com/AqlX3TtbYE
— ESPN (@espn) November 14, 2024
If this fight remains on the feet, Jon Jones should be able to instinctually control the distance with his reach as he does in all of his fights. Stipe is a very awkward and off-beat striker in his own right, so it may take some adjusting for Jones through the opening stages of this fight. Still, Jones has a big advantage in just about every area of this fight and it'll be interesting to see how much respect he has for the presence of Miocic.
Why Stipe Miocic Will Win
Stipe Miocic was prepared to fight Jon Jones when this fight was made a year ago, so he's more than ready to finally meet in the octagon and fight for his legacy. He's considered the best heavyweight ever and has touched UFC gold more than any other fighter. His training camp is always in question given his work as a firefighter, but Miocic comes ready each time and there's no way he can be counted out of this fight. His boxing is considered some of the best in the game and he'll be looking to put his hands on Jones early and often.
The records and stats between these two 🤩@JonnyBones and @StipeMiocic collide for heavyweight gold at #UFC309 on November 16!
[ B2YB: @Diablo ] pic.twitter.com/qemlOHAV7x
— UFC (@ufc) November 13, 2024
Stipe Miocic comes into this fight with a fire underneath him and he'll have to be perfect from the start in making this an even contest. He looks to be in great physical shape and while he may not be the generational athlete Jones is, he has some of the best technique in the division and is very creative as a striker when using his boxing. Defense will also have to be a focal point, but Miocic is more concerned with tagging Jon Jones and jumping on top for the finish.
Final Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic Prediction & Pick
This one is for all the marbles. Jon Jones will either run off into the sunset as the MMA GOAT in his hometown of New York or Stipe Miocic will crash the party and etch his name in the history books as the greatest heavyweight ever.
There's no question that Jon Jones has been meticulously preparing for this moment and taken ever measure to ensure his success. His varied skillset paired with his size and athleticism makes him a nightmare matchup for anyone. Stipe Miocic, on the other hand, is the division's most successful champion and has taken down some of the greatest fighters we've seen in the sport.
Ultimately, the difference for Jon Jones will be his striking and wrestling pedigree to lean on. His chin is much more solid at 240 pounds and he'll make the proper adjustments in Stipe begins to tag him. We like Jones to win this fight, but the total over is more intriguing as we see a methodical fight from both men.
Final Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic Prediction & Pick: Jon Jones (-625); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+105)
