UFC 322: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev continues on the main card with a fight between Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Edwards-Prates prediction and pick.
Leon Edwards (22-5) enters UFC 322 on a two-fight skid, coming off losses to Belal Muhammad by decision and Sean Brady by guillotine choke. Despite his prior title run, Edwards is aiming to recapture momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Carlos Prates.
Carlos Prates (22-7) enters UFC 322 with five UFC knockouts, including a recent second-round KO of Geoff Neal in his UFC career. Before that, Prates fell by decision to Ian Machado Garry, snapping an impressive streak. The Brazilian finisher looks to make another statement as he comes into his fight this weekend against Leon Edwards.
Here are the UFC 322 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 322 odds: Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates odds
Leon Edwards: +150
Carlos Prates: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Leon Edwards will win
- Last Fight: (L) Sean Brady – SUB R4
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Leon Edwards enters UFC 322 hungry to reclaim his elite status, armed with championship experience and a well-rounded toolkit. His signature ability to control range with slick footwork and varied striking enables him to frustrate power punchers like Prates, who thrive on unpredictable exchanges.
Edwards’ durability and defensive savvy have been tested against the very best in the division, and his clinch work adds another layer to his approach. If Prates pushes the pace, Edwards can neutralize it with precise counters and dirty boxing, sapping the Brazilian’s explosiveness through technical mastery.
On the ground, Edwards’ grappling and submission defense ensure he isn’t easily overwhelmed if the fight hits the mat. Having weathered adversity in previous five-round wars, his composure and experience under pressure will help him capitalize on Prates’ defensive lapses as the rounds wear on.
Look for Edwards to manage distance, pick apart Prates with combinations and body kicks, and lean on his veteran IQ to avoid knockout danger. Over five rounds, Edwards’ championship mettle and well-honed tactics should shine through, helping him score a critical win this Saturday at UFC 322.
Why Carlos Prates will win
- Last Fight: (W) Geoff Neal – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 20 (17 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Carlos Prates brings a fearsome finishing instinct and a dynamic striking arsenal to UFC 322, making him a dangerous matchup for Leon Edwards. With five UFC knockouts and a recent stoppage of Geoff Neal, Prates excels at capitalizing on even the slightest defensive lapses from his opponents.
Edwards has looked vulnerable in his last two outings, and Prates has the aggression to exploit any hesitation or lapses in focus. If he’s able to pressure early and force Edwards into uncomfortable exchanges, Prates can chip away with devastating body kicks and relentless combinations.
Prates’ confidence entering this fight is backed by finishing power in either hand, giving him a path to victory at any moment in the bout. If he can stuff Edwards' clinch attempts and keep the fight in open space, Prates’ range striking and willingness to trade could tilt the momentum in his favor.
As the fight unfolds, Prates will look to overwhelm Edwards with volume and force defensive mistakes. Should Edwards get drawn into a firefight, Prates’ explosiveness could be the x-factor, helping the Brazilian secure a show-stealing win this Saturday at UFC 322.
Final Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates prediction & pick
Prates is the betting favorite for good reason, boasting 17 KOs in 22 wins, including a stunning elbow finish of Geoff Neal and a habit of handing out first career knockouts to tough veterans.
Edwards, though, is a former champion who’s never been knocked out—his striking defense, footwork, and championship-level tactics provide a clear path to victory if he can avoid the early danger. Most analysts agree that if Edwards makes this a methodical, multi-round fight, his skills and composure skew the result in his favor.
Prates' game plan will likely be high-pressure exchanges, aiming to drag Edwards into the kind of firefight where he excels. Should he land clean early, Edwards could fall victim to his first KO loss; however, if “Rocky” finds his rhythm and controls the pace, he’s still capable of pulling off a savvy upset.
Ultimately, the fight is razor-close: Prates by KO is the smart play for fireworks, but Edwards’ resilience could steal a grinding decision. Expect drama, with Prates getting the emphatic KO victory over the former champ this Saturday at UFC 322.
Final Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (-180), Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
