The Bonfim brothers take over another event as Ismael Bonfim (20-5) takes on Chris Padilla (16-6) three fights before his younger brother headlines UFC Vegas 111. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Padilla-Bonfim prediction and pick.
Bonfim, 29, is just 1-2 in his last three fights and enters UFC Vegas 111 off a first-round TKO loss to Nazim Sadykhov in February. The loss halted the momentum he gained with a win over Vinc Pichel in 2024 and marked the first knockout defeat of his career.
Padilla, 30, has yet to lose in the Octagon, going 3-0 in his UFC run. After a decade on the West Coast regional scene, ‘Taco' debuted with a submission win over James Llontop on short notice at Vegas 91. He has since collected a knockout win over Rongzhu and a decision nod over Jai Herbert.
Here are the UFC Vegas 111 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 111 Odds: Chris Padilla-Ismael Bonfim Odds
Chris Padilla: -+164
Ismael Bonfim: -198
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Chris Padilla Will Win
Nobody expected Padilla to be this successful when he stepped up on short notice, yet here he is. The gritty Californian has already exceeded expectations in the UFC, winning all three of his fights as an underdog. He finds himself in the same position at UFC Vegas 111 against Bonfim.
Padilla might not be the best fighter Bonfim has ever faced, but he will test his will from the jump. Padilla only knows one speed, which has led to 16 of his 22 professional bouts ending inside the distance. The name of the game for ‘Taco' is calculated violence, as he is rarely on the back foot and constantly putting his opponents in uncomfortable positions.
The last time Bonfim fought a pure buzzsaw like Padilla, he was overwhelmed by Benoit Saint-Denis and submitted in the first round. Padilla, while nowhere near the level of Saint-Denis, has a win by submission, knockout and decision in the UFC. Bonfim, who is coming off the first knockout loss of his 14-year career, could look to be more measured with his risks, which would be a terrible idea against a pressure fighter like Padilla.
Why Ismael Bonfim Will Win
The last time Bonfim suffered a loss in the UFC, he rebounded with arguably the best performance of his career in a decision win over Vinc Pichel. The Bonfim brothers have taken their lumps, but if nothing else, they have proven their ability to learn from their losses and improve from fight to fight. The brothers are a combined 5-1 after a loss; Ismael Bonfim is 4-1 in that regard.
Although he is coming off a TKO loss to Nazim Sadykhov, Bonfim is statistically one of the best defensive strikers in the UFC lightweight division. He absorbs 3.1 significant strikes per minute while holding opponents to an elite 30 percent accuracy rate. Bonfim is a small lightweight, but his speed and distance management are second to none.
Aside from the loss to Sadykhov, Bonfim's four other defeats have been by submission. His losses typically come to opponents who can exploit his size disadvantage on the ground, which has not been Padilla's game. Padilla has five submissions to his game, but four of the five fighters to beat Bonfim are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, which he is not.
Final Chris Padilla-Ismael Bonfim Prediction & Pick
Chris Padilla is one of the most underrated action fighters in the UFC lightweight division. It is also justifiable to believe that he has already reached his peak, while Bonfim still has levels to reach.
All Padilla has done to this point is win chaotic fights as an underdog, and he finds himself in the same position as Bonfim. The Brazilian is not the most fundamentally sound striker, but he is easily the most powerful puncher Padilla will have faced with elite speed and distance control. Bonfim also has a superbly underrated chin, which gives him the confidence to sit in the pocket, even as an often undersized fighter.
Although Bonfim has lost two of his last three fights, he matches up well against Padilla, who, to this point, has been able to execute the right game plan to stack wins in the UFC. But as another undersized lightweight, Padilla does not have the power to threaten Bonfim on the feet, nor does he have the strength to overwhelm him on the ground.
Both fighters have historically commanded the center of the cage and are allergic to taking backward steps, resulting in 59 percent of their combined fights ending inside the distance. Bonfim is also sharing a card with his younger brother, Gabriel Bonfim, and is 4-1 in his career when doing so.
Final Chris Padilla-Ismael Bonfim Prediction & Pick: Ismael Bonfim (-198), Under 2.5 (+105)
