Ranked lightweights kick off the highly anticipated UFC 322 main card as Beneil Dariush (23-6-1) takes on Benoit Saint-Denis (15-3, one no-contest). It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Dariush-Saint-Denis prediction and pick.
Dariush, 36, is scheduled to conclude his 2025 campaign with a second fight after going without one in 2024. The divisional mainstay snapped a two-fight skid with a win over fan favorite Renato Moicano in June to maintain his top-10 ranking in the UFC lightweight division.
Saint-Denis, 29, is also coming off a win, submitting the surging Mauricio Ruffy in the second round of the UFC Paris co-main event in September. The win was his second consecutive after going 0-2 in 2024 to get himself back on track in the ever-competitive weight class.
Here are the UFC 322 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 322 Odds: Beneil Dariush-Benoit Saint-Denis Odds
Beneil Dariush: +150
Benoit Saint-Denis: -180
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Beneil Dariush Will Win
Beneil Dariush has quite literally been rejecting up-and-coming title challengers longer than Benoit Saint-Denis has been in the UFC. Saint-Denis certainly looks like a juggernaut with renewed momentum, but so did Drakkar Klose, Drew Dober, Thiago Moises and Mateusz Gamrot before they ran into Dariush.
When Saint-Denis wins, he steamrolls people. He would seem poised to do so against a 36-year-old Dariush, but Saint-Denis tends to win fights by submission. Dariush, a former Brazilian jiu-jitsu no-gi world champion, has only been submitted once in his 30-fight professional MMA career.
Although Dariush is visibly slowing down with age, he will still be the more technical striker than Saint-Denis. Saint-Denis' biggest weakness continues to be his nonexistent striking defense, which nearly each of his recent opponents have been able to exploit. The last time Dariush faced a grappler who could not out-strike him, he battered and floored Gamrot to sweep the judges' score cards.
Why Benoit Saint-Denis Will Win
The last few years of Dariush's career have clearly taken a toll on him. Once known as an elite grappler capable of engaging in back-and-forth brawls, Dariush now enters this fight having been knocked down in each of his last three fights.
At 36, Dariush's movements have slowed considerably, and his chin has nearly fallen off a cliff. His biggest concern has always been his durability against powerful strikers, but Dariush is now coming off a fight in which he was knocked down by Renato Moicano, who entered that matchup without a previous knockdown as a lightweight.
With the grappling seemingly evening out on paper, Saint-Denis figures to have the edge on the feet. Dariush is the more technical striker, but he no longer has the speed and volume to keep up with Saint-Denis on the feet, who has proven his power as a knockout threat.
Final Beneil Dariush-Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction & Pick
Dariush has a clear path to victory, but this is Saint-Denis' fight to lose. While Dariush tends to out-grapple most of his opponents, particularly other wrestling-heavy fighters, his declining durability is too much of an issue to overlook against Saint-Denis, who has three knockouts in his seven UFC victories.
Dariush is the cleaner striker on film, but that never matters to Saint-Denis, who is almost never willing to take a step back. As a result, the ‘God of War' lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute at a higher clip.
At this point in his career, Dariush is still a capable striker, but he almost exclusively looks to wrestle his way to victory. That is still possible, but Saint-Denis will be the slightly bigger fighter who should match his underrated strength. Nobody has controlled Saint-Denis for more than 19 percent of a 15-minute UFC fight.
Dariush has a long history of success against other grapplers, but Saint-Denis has a clear path to breach the top 10 of the division if he believes in his striking. The Frenchman has elite finishing instincts and should be able to close the show if he hurts Dariush the same way each of his last three opponents have.
Final Beneil Dariush-Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction & Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis (-180), Under 1.5 (+130)
