The UFC is back for another Fight Night card at The Apex as the Vegas 111 Main Card kicks off in the Middleweight (185) Division. England's Christian Leroy Duncan is set to take on Brazil's Marco Tulio as both fighters look to break through into the rankings. Check our UFC odds series for the Duncan-Tulio prediction and pick.
Christian Leroy Duncan (12-2) has gone 5-2 inside the UFC since 2023. He's managed a 4-1 record over his last five fights, notching back-to-back wins and a performance bonus over Eryk Anders in his last bout. He comes in a short betting underdog for the first time in his UFC tenure. Duncan stands 6-foot-2 with a 79-inch reach.
Marco Tulio (14-1) has gone 2-0 since debuting for the UFC in 2025. He went 2-0 in two fights on Dana White's Contender Series, proving his worth and following it up with two exciting knockouts since joining the roster. He'll look for a similar result against his toughest opponent to-date. Tulio stands six feet tall with a 74.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 111 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 111 Odds: Christian Leroy Duncan-Marco Tulio Odds
Christian Leroy Duncan: +154
Marco Tulio: -185
Over 2.5 rounds: -130
Under 2.5 rounds: +100
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Why Christian Leroy Duncan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Eryk Anders – TKO (spinning elbow, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Christian Leroy Duncan earned a ‘performance of the night' bonus in his last fight over Eryk Anders, landing a perfect spinning eblow to drop his opponent and finish the fight with follow-up strikes. Duncan continues to impress with his striking against a wide range of opponents. This time around, he'll be tasked with a fearless brawler looking to end the fight. Duncan may have to be the more patient side and win with finesse if he wants to have a chance here.
This will be the first time Duncan is billed as an underdog in the UFC, certainly telling of the opponent he's facing here. Duncan is very accurate with his significant striking at 59%, but he's been known to start fights slow in the past. He won't have much time to waste in this one as Tulio is sure to bring the fight to him early.
Ultimately, Duncan is the more talented and technical striker of the two and stands to win this fight if he's able to be the more accurate and patient side. His counter-striking has fared well against similar opponents in the past, so don't be surprised if Duncan is able to find his range early and start picking Tulio apart by the later rounds.
Why Marco Tulio Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Tresean Gore – KO (right hand, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Each test the UFC has thrown at Marco Tulio, he's been able to pass it with flying colors as he's finally ready for a serious step-up in competition. Tulio's previous opponents have been nothing to scoff at, but he's been able to win with relative ease behind his aggressive striking and physicality in all aspects of the fight. Christian Leroy Duncan is a true striker that Tulio may have to game plan for, otherwise running the risk of falling behind in a kickboxing fight.
Marco Tulio is extremely aggressive when taking the center of the octagon and throws dangerous combinations and flurries in the process. He's also very active with his high head kicks and doesn't hesitate to throw them from close range. Against Duncan, Tulio will benefit from being first in the exchanges and implementing his own physical will on his opponent before the opposite happens.
It's surprising to see Tulio the betting favorite in just his third official UFC fight, but it speaks volumes to his aggressive striking nature and willingness to take a punch while brawling. Oddsmakers are predicting that Christian Leroy Duncan will have massive trouble taking Marco Tulio out of the fight.
Final Christian Leroy Duncan-Marco Tulio Prediction & Pick
This is a great matchup to open the Main Card action as both fighters have been known for their talented striking and ability to knock opponents out. As it stands, Christian Leroy Duncan is the more fluid striker and has more experience against this level of competition. However, Marco Tulio is on a destructive path and his aggressive fighting style is already looking like a tough problem to solve.
Marco Tulio will be successful in this fight if he's able to intermittently close the distance and force Duncan to defend his flurries of strikes. He'll need to be careful in not over-extending himself as Duncan is a formidable counter-striker. Still, I expect Duncan to be one step ahead in the striking if he can manage to bob and weave out of Tulio's way.
If Christian Leroy Duncan is able to assume the “matador” role during this fight, he should be able to come away with the close underdog win.
Final Christian Leroy Duncan-Marco Tulio Prediction & Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan (+154)
