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The New York Liberty take on the Atlanta Dream. Check out our WNBA odds series for our Liberty Dream prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Liberty Dream.
The New York Liberty have just two losses so far this season. It seems like they should have more losses, but they have only two. They own the second-best record in the WNBA behind the unbeaten Connecticut Sun. The reason why we say the Liberty should have more than two losses is that they have played with fire against lesser teams. They trailed the winless Washington Mystics at home midway through the fourth quarter of a game played last Friday in New York. They led by just one point with under four minutes left in regulation. They closed the game on a big run to win by 11, but they played substandard basketball for most of the night.
New York similarly let the Phoenix Mercury — a team which is 4-6 through 10 games — come very close to winning in New York. Phoenix led 74-71 inside the final three minutes before the Liberty rallied to escape with a win.
If you are following the WNBA closely, you know this, but if you're not following the WNBA with an eagle eye every day, this might surprise you: New York is an elite first-quarter team, a terrible second-quarter team, and a good last-five-minutes team. The Liberty often get off to great starts, then get lazy and careless, and then regain a sense of urgency to finish games strong. It has been good enough for an 8-2 record, but these bad habits and long midgame lulls are going to catch up to the Liberty if they don't correct these flaws and find a way to become a lot steadier on a game-to-game basis.
The Atlanta Dream are pretty clearly the sixth-best team in the WNBA. That might seem like an odd thing to say, but it's true. There's a clear-cut top five in the league (Connecticut, New York, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Seattle), and a similarly evident bottom six (Phoenix, Dallas, Chicago, Indiana, Los Angeles, Washington). Atlanta is right in between those two groups. The Dream are 4-3. They have the best record of any WNBA team with a negative point differential. Only the top five teams have positive point differentials.
Here are the Liberty-Dream WNBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
WNBA Odds: Liberty-Dream Odds
New York Liberty: -6.5 (-110)
Atlanta Dream: +6.5 (-110)
Over: 165 (-112)
Under: 165 (-108)
How to Watch Liberty vs Dream
TV: WWOR (Liberty) / Peachtree TV (Dream)
Article Continues Below
Stream: WNBA League Pass
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
*Watch WNBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Liberty Could Cover The Spread
The Liberty are so talented that they are 8-2 and second in the WNBA despite playing the inconsistent basketball we described above. This team can turn it on and become frighteningly good in short bursts. The potential of this team is enormous if it can learn to avoid the midgame lulls which have become so frustrating, particularly in second quarters after the Liberty build double-digit first-quarter leads. There isn't that much separating the Liberty from becoming the best team in the WNBA. At their best, they still have a gear few teams can match.
Why The Dream Could Cover The Spread
The Liberty have a high ceiling, but they have been smoked in second quarters on multiple occasions this season. They can instantly build a big lead, but they can also instantly give it right back. The Dream beat the defending WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces at home not that long ago. They can certainly cover a 6.5-point spread against New York.
Final Liberty-Dream Prediction & Pick
The Liberty are inconsistent, even though they're 8-2. They are not 8-2 against the spread, however; they're worse than that. This is a game worth staying away from. Maybe bet on the Liberty minus the first-quarter spread and the Dream in a live bet on the second quarter spread. If the game is close with five minutes left, live-bet the Liberty to cover the in-play spread.
Final Liberty-Dream Prediction & Pick: Dream +6.5
