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Liberty can make another step toward securing a C-USA title game birth as they face Western Kentucky. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Liberty-Western Kentucky prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Liberty continues their undefeated season after a win last week. They started with a win over Bowling Green, and then started conference play with a game against New Mexico State. It was another victory, before their second non-conference game of the season. That was a win over Buffalo. They dominated FIU in the next week before their first close game of the season. Liberty's closest game of the year was Sam Houston, as they won 21-16. They dominated Jacksonville State the next week and came away with a win last week. Last week, Liberty was tied with MTSU going into the fourth quarter, but Kaidon Salter hit CJ Daniels for a 37-yard score to win 42-35. Liberty will clinch a spot in the C-USA conference title game with a win.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky enters the game at 4-3 on the season with a 2-1 conference record. First, they beat USF 41-24. They followed that up by scoring 52 points against Houston Christian and winning 52-22. Western Kentucky would drop to 2-2 after losses to Ohio State and Troy, but rebound in conference play. They took care of Middle Tennessee 31-10, before taking out Louisiana Tech. Western Kentucky was up 35-7 at the half and would hold on to win 35-28. Last week, luck ran out for Hilltoppers. They were up 14-0 in the first quarter, and 17-10 at the half. They allowed 10 points in the fourth quarter, including a field goal as time expired to fall to Jacksonville State 20-17.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Liberty-Western Kentucky Odds
Liberty: -4 (-110)
Western Kentucky: +4 (-110)
Over: 60.5 (-110)
Under: 60.5 (-110)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Week 9
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPNU
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Liberty Will Cover The Spread
Liberty is one of the remaining nine unbeaten teams this season. Liberty ranks 15th in the nation in scoring this year. The Flames are led by Kaidon Salter this year. Salter is coming off one of his best games of the season. He was just 12-20 passing for 140 yards and two scores. Still, he was great on the ground with 156 yards. He is 88-152 this season for 1,493 yards with 16 touchdowns. Salter has made 18 big-time throws according to PFF, while throwing just five turnover-worthy passes.
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Salter has also been solid on the ground this year. He has 261 yards scrambling this year, with 513 total yards overall. Salter has scored six times on the ground but has three fumbles this season. Meanwhile, Quinton Cooley has 726 yards on the ground with six scores. Last time out, he ran for 134 yards and three scores. He has run for over 100 yards in each of the last four games while scoring in each of the last three this season. He is also averaging six yards per carry this year.
Liberty has two solid receivers as well. CJ Daniels has been solid this year. He has 509 yards receiving this year with 24 receptions on 37 targets. Daniels has also scored four times this year. Treon Sibley has also been solid and great after the catch. He has brought in 16 of 22 targets for 385 yards and three scores. He has 159 yards after the catch, with an average of 9.9 yards per reception after the catch.
Liberty is going to have to be good on the pass defense to win this one. They rank 51st against the pass this year. That starts with the pass rush. Liberty has just 15 sacks this year, with 99 pressures. CJ Bazile leads the way with two sacks and 20 pressures this year. Still, Liberty leads the nation in interceptions this year. They have 15 interceptions on the season, three more than the next-best team. They are led by Brylan Green who has five of them this year. He has also broken up four passes this year. Meanwhile, Kobe Singleton has three interceptions with five pass breakups. Liberty is tied for third in the nation this year in turnover margin.
Why Western Kentucky Will Cover The Spread
The Hilltoppers are in the 30th nationally in passing this year, while sitting tied for 50th in scoring this year. Austin Reed leads this Western Kentucky offense. For the season he has completed 175 of 195 passes this year. That is good for 1,913 yards and 16 touchdowns this year. According to PFF, he has 15 big-time throws. Further, he has just four interceptions this year and only 13 turnover-worthy passes. He is coming off a rough game though, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 250 yards, while also having a fumble.
Western Kentucky does not have the best rushing attack, but it is scoring. Markese Stepp has scored twice this year, with 200 yards on the ground. Davion Ervin-Poindexter has also scored and so has Elijah Young. The most rushing touchdowns come from Austin Reed who has three of them on the ground this year.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has eight different receivers over 100 yards receiving this year. All seven of their top receivers have at least one touchdown reception this year, while all but one of them has brought in 50 percent of their targets. Malachi Corley is the leader of the team. Corley has brought in 43 of 70 targets this year with 585 yards and five scores. He has been great after the catch with 429 yards after the catch this year. Meanwhile, Easton Messer has brought in 23 of 28 targets for 292 yards with three scores this year.
The pass rush has been solid this year, with 20 sacks this season. Kendrick Simpkins, the safety, has 16 pressures this year with five sacks to lead the team. Meanwhile, on their defensive line, it is Niko Cooper leading the way, with two sacks and 14 pressures. In coverage, it is Anthony Johnson leading the way. He has two interceptions this year with five pass breakups. Western Kentucky has allowed just nine touchdowns through the air this year with eight interceptions.
Final Liberty-Western Kentucky Prediction & Pick
Both of these teams take care of the ball well, while also creating turnovers. Still, Kaidon Salter has been better than Austin Reed in ball security. Further, Liberty has a slightly better defense and scores more on offense. Finally, Liberty is not one-dimensional, while Western Kentucky is. Liberty is going to come away with this one, as they continue their march in an undefeated season.
Final Liberty-Western Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Liberty -4 (-110)
