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The UCSB Gauchos (21-4) will take on the Creighton Bluejays (20-8) on Saturday in a five vs. twelve seeded battle. Let’s continue our NCAA odds series and make a UCSB-Creighton prediction and pick using some March Madness odds.
This game has the potential to be a lot closer than the spread and the seeding depicts. The Gauchos had a phenomenal 2021 that was capped off by a resounding Big West championship. Fifth seeds have the advantage in tournament history, defeating the twelfth seeds 90 times in 140 overall matchup's. Twelve seeds actually have the advantage in games decided by four points or fewer, though.
Here is how the sportsbooks have set the odds:
NCAA Odds: UCSB-Creighton Odds
UCSB Gauchos +7.5 (-115)
Creighton Bluejays -7.5 (-105)
Over 138 Points (-110)
Under 138 Points (-110)
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Why UCSB Could Cover The Spread
The Gauchos from Santa Barbara, California have had a historic season in 2021. Led by star player JaQuori McLaughlin (16.2 points and 5.2 assists per game), UCSB won the Big West conference and finished the year with a record of 21-4 (14-10 ATS). McLaughlin has been playing incredible basketball for the Gauchos all year and especially of late. He averaged 20.3 points per game in the Big West tournament. UCSB is built around a streaky offense and a monstrous defense.
The offense has been clicking on all cylinders lately, averaging 77.2 points per game during their current five game winning streak. As mentioned, the defense is the backbone of this team, though. The Gauchos sport a top-20 defense in the nation that has allowed just 62.8 points per game in 2021. The team from sunny Santa Barbara finished with a record of 1-1 ATS as an underdog this season. They are 18-1 SU in their last 19 and couldn't enter the tournament on a better note.
Why Creighton Could Cover The Spread
The Creighton Bluejays had a solid 2021 campaign, finishing 20-8 (13-15 ATS) on their way to the Big East final. We all know how that game ended. Georgetown's momentum and high energy play shocked the Bluejays and their struggling offense. Creighton only scored 48 points in that game and haven't been able to put the ball in the bucket of late. Team leader Marcus Zegarowski (15.5 pointsand 4.3 assists per) will look to facilitate and get this team back on track in their first round matchup.
This team is just in an uncharacteristic rut. They have five players that averaged double figures in 2021 and the Bluejays averaged 77 points per game as a team in 2021. They were 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS entering the Big East championship. It's easy to argue that the game against Georgetown was a fluke and this team is built to win on the big stage. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in March and have all of the tools to advance to the round of 32 and beyond.
Final UCSB-Creighton Prediction & Pick
This game is on upset alert in my eyes. The struggles of the Creighton offense is alarming. To score just 48 points against Georgetown doesn't give you a lot of comfort. Interesting to note that Georgetown is another twelve seed in this tournament as well. You can't get a hotter team than the Gauchos and I love teams that get hot at the right time. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders and their defense has been a stable all year. This spread has been moving and will continue to move. Let's thank the oddsmakers for a generous opening spread and hammer the Gauchos of Santa Barbara.
FINAL PICK: UCSB +7.5 (-115)
