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The No. 10 seed Utah State Aggies (26-8) face the No. 7 seed Missouri Tigers (24-9) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Action tips off at 1:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our March Madness odds series with a Utah State-Missouri prediction, pick, and how to watch!
Utah State lost a tight contest in the Mountain West Championship game but had previously won seven games in a row and finished third in the conference. The Aggies covered 64% of their games while 61% went over the projected point total. Missouri was ousted in the semifinals of the SEC tournament but had won their five previous games to finish fourth in the conference. The Tigers covered 50% of their games while 55% went over. This will be the first-ever meeting between the schools.
Here are the Utah State-Missouri March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Utah State-Missouri Odds
Utah State: -1.5 (-110)
Missouri: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 155.5 (-110)
Under: 155.5 (-110)
How To Watch Utah State vs. Missouri
TV: TNT
Stream: March Madness Live
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET/ 10:40 PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Utah State Could Cover The Spread
Utah State put together a strong resume that saw them go 11-2 in their non-conference slate and lose in the Mountain West Championship game. The Aggies didn't play a difficult schedule but did beat Oral Roberts by 10 and Washington State by nine. They were stellar in conference play, going 13-5 en route to securing the No. 3 seed in the Mountain West Tournament. The Aggies secured two late-season wins over Boise State – including one in the semifinal that clinched their spot in the field. Utah State finds itself viewed favorably by the advanced metrics as they enter at No. 18 in both KenPom and NET. They are the only double-digit seed with a top 30 KenPom ranking.
If you’re looking for a reason Utah State can cover against Missouri’s explosive offense, look no further than their earlier win over Oral Roberts. While the Aggies didn’t necessarily slow down Oral Roberts’ similarly strong offense, they did enough to support their own work on that end. Considering Utah State harbors KenPom’s 13th-most efficient offense, they should have a ton of success against a Missouri defense that ranks outside the top 175 in defensive efficiency.
The Aggies’ elite offense is led by point guard Steven Ashworth. The 6’1” junior is an absolute sniper from behind the arc as he averages 3.2 threes per game at a 44% clip. He serves as their leading scorer and playmaker as well with averages of 16.3 PPG and 4.5 APG. Besides Ashorth, forward Dan Akin is a name to watch. Savvy fans may remember Akin from the 2017-18 UMBC team who upset Virginia. In his final year of eligibility he’s followed former UMBC coach Ryan Odom to Utah State and averaged 12 PPG and 6.9 RPG.
Why Missouri Could Cover The Spread
Missouri started the season red-hot thanks to a stellar 12-1 non-conference record. While they did get blown out by Kansas, the Tigers managed key wins over Illinois and Iowa State. Missouri did have some rough patches in SEC play but with wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee they proved capable of hanging with the top tier. With that, they secured the No. 4 seed in the conference tournament where they took down Tennessee again before losing to Alabama in the semifinals. Missouri projects as a major underdog according to advanced metrics as they sit at No. 51 in KenPom and No. 42 in NET. Despite being a No. 7 seed, the Tigers are the fourth-lowest at-large team in KenPom's rankings.
Missouri is one of the most attractive picks of the first round considering they're a higher-seeded underdog. The Tigers feature an explosive offense that ranks 11th in offensive efficiency. They get most of their work done from deep – an area Utah State struggled to defend. The Tigers hold the 11th-highest three-point percentage in the country and average the 26th-most threes per game. Mizzou plays a ton of guards, highlighted by seniors Kobe Brown (15.8 PPG) and D’Moi Hodge (14.8 PPG). If their outside shots are falling the Tigers could make some serious noise in this game and beyond. However, Missouri is one of the worst defensive teams in the field as they give up the 25th-most threes per game and rank 280th in defense.
Final Utah State-Missouri Prediction & Pick
Missouri is one of the most fascinating teams in the field given their offensive firepower. If they catch fire from deep this could easily be a double-digit Tigers victory. That being said, I like the consistency and two-way play of the Aggies in what should be a tightly-contested affair.
Final Utah State-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Utah State -1.5 (-110)
