The UFC 309 Early Prelims are coming to a close and we'll bring you our betting prediction and pick for this concluding bout in the Heavyweight Division. No. 9-ranked Marcin Tybura of Poland will take on rising prospect Jhonata Diniz of Brazil in an exciting showdown. Check out our UFC odds series for our Tybura-Diniz prediction and pick.

Marcin Tybura (25-9) has gone 12-8 since joining the UFC roster back in 2016. He's gone 3-2 over his last five with a loss coming to Serghei Spivac via armbar in his most recent fight. Now, he'll look to defend his standing against an undefeated prospect. Tybura stands 6'3″ with a 78-inch reach.

Jhonata Diniz (8-0) has gone 2-0 in the UFC during 2024 as he makes his third walk to the octagon. After a win on Dana White's Contender Series, he's finished Austen Lane and beat Karl Williams unanimously during his most recent fight. He stands to make a serious jump in the rankings if he can take down his first ranked opponent. Diniz stands 6'4″ with a 79.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 309 Odds: Marcin Tybura-Jhonata Diniz Odds

Marcin Tybura: -148

Jhonata Diniz: +124

Over 1.5 rounds: -145

Under 1.5 rounds: +114

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Why Marcin Tybura Will Win

Marcin Tybura will be looking to bounce back following a disappointing performance against Serghei Spivac. Tybura was on the wrong end of a submission as he ran into a determined Spivac desperately searching for a win. He'll have a better stylistic matchup in this one with Diniz as he'll be able to remain on his feet and work his kickboxing techniques. He's a former M-1 Global champion and will have his best shot to win this fight by point fighting his way to a solid decision.

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With five of his losses coming by way of KO/TKO, Tybura will have to be very defensive and aware of the power coming back his way from Diniz. However, he's faced a number of KO artists like Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa in the past, so this won't be his first rodeo against another dangerous heavyweight. Look for Tybura to employ some of his grappling as he holds a significant advantage in that department over his opponent.

Why Jhonata Diniz Will Win

Jhonata Diniz last fought just three months ago and put together a very impressive showing against Karl Williams. Despite his disadvantage in the grappling, Diniz was able to stuff three of Williams' five takedown attempts and fights behind a solid 70% overall defense rate. He's much better on the feet and has out-struck every opponent he's seen at the UFC level. If he can work a similar strategy in this one, he should be the sharper striker against Marcin Tybura.


Diniz lands just over four significant strikes per minute and for a heavyweight, he has extremely fast combinations and does a great job of moving around the cage. He also doesn't take a ton of damage, so we should see Diniz dodging some of the power coming back his way from Tybura. If he can keep this fight on the feet, Diniz should be able to dictate the striking range and come away with the more devastating exchanges in the pocket.

Final Marcin Tybura-Jhonata Diniz Prediction & Pick

This is a solid matchup for both fighters as they'll have a willing dance partner to engage with their kickboxing pedigrees. Marcin Tybura fights with a classic Muay Thai style and will make much more use of his kicks, while Diniz is more of a pure boxer and has lightning-fast combinations from his hands. Both men will be gauging the distance during the early stages of this fight.

It'll be interesting to see how Jhonata Diniz handles an experienced veteran for the first time in the UFC. While his first two opponents were formidable, they lacked the striking acumen of a fighter like Tybura. This matchup should make for a tougher test for Diniz as we'll see if he truly has what it takes to break into the rankings.

Still, Marcin Tybura has a very good chance to win this fight if he's able to get Diniz to the ground. While Diniz has solid takedown defense, he's extremely outmatched when fighting off his back and given Tybura's submission capabilities, it could spell trouble if he spends too much time down there. For our final betting prediction, we'll roll with Marcin Tybura to get the win as his betting odds have drastically moved in his favor during fight week.

Final Marcin Tybura-Jhonata Diniz Prediction & Pick: Marcin Tybura (-148)