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The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds start their three-game series this evening in Cincinnati. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Reds prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Marlins enter the game after being swept by the Rangers over the weekend. They have now lost four straight games and seven of their last ten overall. That places the Marlins at 58-55 on the season, a half-game back of the Reds and the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot. The injury bug struck over the weekend for the Marlins again. Jazz Chisholm Jr, who has played just five games since his last injury, left the game Saturday with a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day.
Meanwhile, the Reds have also lost six straight games. Over the weekend it was a sweep by Nationals over the Reds. That comes off losing three of four to the Cubs, and the losing streak has dropped them to 59-55 on the year. That places them 1.5 games back of the Brewers in the division and tied with the Cubs for second in the division and the last Wild Card spot.
Here are the Marlins-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Reds Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+112)
Cincinnati Reds:+1.5 (-134)
Over: 10.5 (-110)
Under: 10.5 (-110)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Reds
TV: BSFL/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
While losing six of their last seven games, the Miami offense has heavily struggled. In the last seven games, they have scored just 24 runs. Nine of those games in a win, while another eight came in a 9-8 loss to the Rangers. That means in the other five games, they scored just seven runs. On the season the Marlins are 25th in runs scored, but are third in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. Coming into the game, Jesus Sanchez has been hitting well. In the last week, he has two doubles and two RBIs while also scoring a run. He is getting on base a lot though, hitting .412 with a .444 on-base percentage.
Yuri Gurriel is doing the same. While he has not scored or driven in a run, he is hitting .400 with a .455 on-base percentage in limited at-bats. Luis Arraez is still hitting well. Arraez leads the majors with a .375 batting average and is on a seven-game hitting streak. While hitting .344 in the last week, there has not been a lot of production. He has scored four times but only driven in one run in the last week. Producing runs in the last week has been a trouble for the Marlins.
Jorge Soler has driven the most runs in the last week. With the help of a double and two home runs, Soler has five RBIs and has scored four times. He is hitting just .250 in the last week but does have a .344 on-base percentage. Newcomer Josh Bell also has a home run and three RBIs. Bell has an on-base percentage of .435 in the last week and has scored three times.
The Marlins send one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball to the mound today, as twenty-year-old Eury Perez takes the hill. He is 5-3 on the season with a 2.36 ERA. He has not made a start since July sixth, when he went six innings and gave up just one run. That was a nice rebound from his other start in July. In the game on July 1st he recorded just one out and gave up six runs and two home runs to the Braves. Still, before that, he had gone 33 innings giving up just one run. He has great stuff and should be solid today.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds come in today needing to figure out their pitching woes. In their six-game losing streak, Reds pitchers have surrendered 60 runs. The best game they have had was giving up just five runs in a loss to the Cubs. On the year they are 27th in team ERA, while sitting 27th in WHIP and 25th in opponent batting average. They send Brandon Williamson to the mound today with a 3-2 record and 4.85 ERA. In his first start in August, he got shelled. He went just 4.1 innings, giving up five runs with two home runs. That is a departure from the solid July he had. In July, Williamson went 25.2 innings and gave up just seven runs, good for a 2.45 ERA.
The Reds are getting some run production on offense still. On the season they are tied for seventh in runs scored while sitting 15th in batting average, 14th in slugging, and tenth in on-base percentage. In the last week, the majors RBI production has come from TJ Friedl and Joey Votto. Friedl is hitting .238 in the last week, with a .304 on-base percentage. He has five RBIs and three home runs with four runs scored. Joey Votto has a nearly identical stat line. He is also hitting .238 with a .304 on-base percentage. He also has five RBIs, three home runs, and four runs scored. The only difference between the two has been Votto has one more strikeout, and Friedl has stolen four bases.
Spencer Steer also has contributed in the last week. While he is hitting just .200, he has four RBIs and five runs scored. He has done this with the help of two home runs and three doubles. The major issue for the offense lately has been some strikeouts. They have struck out as a team 74 times in the last seven games, good for over ten a game. That is led by Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz. McClain has struck out 12 times while still hitting .276. De La Cruz has struck out 13 times while hitting just .200.
Final Marlins-Reds Prediction & Pick
While Eury Perez has not been used in the majors a lot this year, he has been solid when he has been in the majors. He will not go deep in the game, but he should be able to get the Marlins the lead. Even more, the Miami bats have been solid. Against left-handed pitchers, they have the fifth-best hard-hit ball rate in the majors. Adding to that is the weather, which will be conducive to home runs and long-hit balls in this game. Expect plenty of runs in this one in a Miami victory.
Final Marlins-Reds Prediction & Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+112) and Over 10.5 (-110)
