Subscribe
Follow Us
Matteo Berrettini takes on Taylor Fritz. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Berrettini-Fritz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Berrettini-Fritz.
This is a terrific early-round match at the US Open. Matteo Berrettini is a former Wimbledon finalist and a player who has made lots of fourth-round and quarterfinal runs at major tournaments, including some semifinal results. Taylor Fritz reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year and is a solid top-15 ATP Tour professional. The two are meeting not in the fourth round or quarterfinals, but in the second round, otherwise known as the round of 64. Getting a matchup this good this early in a major tournament is a real treat for tennis fans, and also for casual American sports fans who are getting ready for football season but tune in to the U.S. Open every year to get a taste of tennis.
Some people will wonder why Berrettini hasn't gotten back to a major final since his 2021 Wimbledon final appearance against Novak Djokovic. To be candid, injuries have gotten in the way. Berrettini established himself as a mentally tough player; his body has betrayed him. He gave Jannik Sinner a really good battle at Wimbledon this year. Because Berrettini's ranking has suffered due to his injury absence earlier in the year, he is having to face higher-ranked players earlier in important tournaments. The Italian will need to win a few of these kinds of matches and make some deep runs so that he can pick up rankings points and increase his standing on the leaderboard. That's the law of the jungle in tennis: Win, gain points, build the ranking, and get easier draws at tournaments as a result. Berrettini needs a breakthrough so that he can climb the rankings ladder.
Here are the Berrettini-Fritz U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Matteo Berrettini-Taylor Fritz
Game Spread:
Berrettini +3.5: -124
Fritz -3.5: -108
Moneyline:
Berrettini +160
Fritz -200
To Win First Set:
Berrettini +128
Fritz -156
Total Games In Match:
Over 40.5: -122
Under 40.5: -110
Total Games Won:
Berrettini over 19.5: -124
Berrettini under 19.5: -108
Fritz over 21.5: -112
Fritz under 21.5: -118
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: approx. 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT — could be 30 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous match
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
Stream: ( free trial)
Why Matteo Berrettini Will Win
Berrettini has been a better major-tournament player than Fritz, and it's not even all that close. Berrettini has made a number of very deep runs, while Fritz has never reached a major semifinal. He came close at Wimbledon but still fell short against Lorenzo Musetti. Berrettini can call on his major-tournament experience to help him here. Keep in mind that Berrettini is getting 3.5 games. He could lose the match but still cover. As long as Berrettini gets into a few tiebreakers and can take the match at least four sets — meaning that he wins at least one set — he should cover. Fritz could win the match by a score of 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, and Berrettini would cover. That scoreline would create a Fritz plus-2 margin.
Why Taylor Fritz Will Win
Taylor Fritz has had a lot of success in head-to-head meetings against Berrettini. He is 3-0. It's not a huge sample size, but it's still impossible to ignore. Fritz is playing in his home-nation major, and it's easy to see him hitting huge serves and playing confidently.
Final Matteo Berrettini-Taylor Fritz Prediction & Pick
We're leaning to Berrettini against the spread, but it's hardly a lock, so we will steer clear of that one. Going over the games-won totals for each player would be a solid play if you think this match will go at least four sets, which we do. However, a match can go four sets and a player can still not win a large amount of games. If that player loses a set 6-2, a match could go four sets and that player might win only 16 or 17 games. The best bet is therefore not specific to one player. Just go for the total games played. If the match goes four sets, chances are there will be at least 41 games played. There will probably be at least one set which goes 12 games (7-5) or 13 (7-6).
Click Here for more betting news & predictions
Final Matteo Berrettini-Taylor Fritz Prediction & Pick: Over 40.5 total games
