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UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic kicks off the main card with a fight in the lightweight division between Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop. Mauricio Ruffy was successful in his UFC debut with a vicious first-round knockout and has won five in a row coming into this fight meanwhile, Llontop steps in on short notice with his back against the wall losing both of his fights inside the Octagon. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Ruffy-Llontop prediction and pick.
Mauricio Ruffy (10-1) finally gets to step inside the Octagon for a second time after some fizzled fight rumors and a canceled bout against Charlie Campbell. He is currently on a five-fight knockout streak most recently dispatching Jamie Mullarkey in under five minutes. Now, “One Shot” will look to live up to his nickname when he steps inside the Octagon to face off against James Llontop this weekend at UFC 309.
James Llontop (14-4) secured his UFC contract after a dominant showing on the Contender Series in 2023. However, that was short-lived as he has subsequently dropped each of his two fights inside the Octagon most recently losing a split decision to Viacheslab Borshchev in his last fight. Now, with his back against the wall, Llontop will be looking to right the ship in this opportunity when he takes on Mauricio Ruffy this weekend at Madison Square Garden.
Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 309 Odds: Mauricio Ruffy-James Llontop Odds
Mauricio Ruffy: -900
James Llontop: +600
Over 1.5 rounds: -180
Under 1.5 rounds: +140
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Why Mauricio Ruffy Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jamie Mullarkey – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 (10 KO/TKO)
Mauricio Ruffy is set to defeat James Llontop at UFC 309. With a professional record of 10-1, Ruffy has quickly established himself as a formidable force in the lightweight division, notably scoring a first-round knockout in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey. His fighting style is characterized by powerful striking, which has led to all of his victories coming by way of knockout. This ability to end fights early will be crucial against Llontop, who has struggled in recent bouts and may find it challenging to withstand Ruffy's relentless offensive pressure.
Additionally, Ruffy's training environment plays a significant role in his success. He has been honing his skills with the Fighting Nerds a team of fighters like Caio Borralho, Carlos Prates, and Jean Silva who have helped him refine his techniques and fight IQ. As he enters Madison Square Garden, the energy of the venue will further motivate him to perform at his best. With his combination of striking power and improved tactical approach, Mauricio Ruffy is well-equipped to secure a decisive victory over James Llontop this weekend.
Why James Llontop Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Viacheslav Borshchev – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 (3 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
James Llontop is poised to defeat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 309, capitalizing on his striking volume and experience. With a professional record of 14-4, Llontop has demonstrated resilience and adaptability in the octagon, landing an impressive 5.38 significant strikes per minute compared to Ruffy's 4.88. This higher output not only showcases his ability to maintain pressure but also indicates that he can overwhelm opponents with his striking, which could be crucial against Ruffy, who has faced fewer high-volume strikers in his career. Llontop's striking defense is also noteworthy, as he successfully defends against 62% of strikes thrown at him, allowing him to mitigate damage while executing his game plan.
Llontop's experience fighting in various promotions gives him an edge in handling high-pressure situations. He has faced tougher competition than Ruffy, including a recent split-decision loss that showcased his ability to compete at a high level. This experience will be invaluable as he steps into Madison Square Garden, where the atmosphere can be overwhelming for newcomers. With his combination of striking volume and seasoned fight IQ, James Llontop is well-equipped to secure a victory over Mauricio Ruffy this weekend.
Final Mauricio Ruffy-James Llontop Prediction & Pick
This is a great fight to kick things off on the main card between these two lightweight prospects. Ruffy has a ton of hype surrounding him as he looks to continue his torrid pace meanwhile, Llontop is looking to play spoiler and get the biggest win of his professional career come this weekend. Ultimately, things should be an absolute war from the early going of this fight and while Llontop is as tough as they come Ruffy is going to light him up and put him away inside two rounds extending his winning streak to six in a row.
Final Mauricio Ruffy-James Llontop Prediction & Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (-150), Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)
