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Memphis has been the best team in the American Conference, while USF has struggled most of the season, barely clinging to a .500 record. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Memphis-USF prediction and pick.
Memphis is 20-4 entering this game and has won seven straight. It has notable wins against Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Ole Miss. However, it has also suffered significant losses to Auburn and Mississippi State. PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter are among the best duos in the country. The Tigers are the American favorite, and a win here would only further cement that.
USF is 12-12 this season and is 2-2 in their last four games. It has zero notable wins and two notable losses to Florida and Utah State this season. Jamille Reynolds and Jayden Reid are the two best players on the roster, and the Bulls need all they can get from both to have a chance in Memphis. This would be a big upset if the Bulls can pull this off.
Here are the Memphis-USF College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Memphis-USF Odds
Memphis: -7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -285
USF: +7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +235
Over: 151.5 (-115)
Under: 151.5 (-105)
How to Watch Memphis vs. USF
Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Memphis Will Cover The Spread/Win
Memphis's offense has been a considerable strength this season. They score 79.4 points per game, have a 48.3% field goal percentage, and a 40.3% three-point shooting percentage. Their adjusted offensive efficiency ranking is 58th in KenPom, with a rating of 115.2.
Four Memphis players average over double digits in scoring for this offense, and PJ Haggerty is the team leader in scoring with 21.6 points per game. Haggerty has been one of the best scorers in college basketball this season, tied for fourth in the country. However, the offense needs some work regarding ball movement because it only averages 14.1 assists per game. Haggerty is also the assists leader, averaging 3.7 per game.
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Haggerty gets most of the attention rightfully, but Tyrese Hunter has also been a massive piece for this backcourt. The Tigers have one of the best backcourts in college basketball, and they should have no issues scoring on a defense that has had problems stopping teams all season.
In the American conference, Memphis' defense is hovering around the middle of the pack, which is unimpressive overall. They allow 73.2 points per game, 42.3% from the field, and 33.3% from behind the arc. Surprisingly, their defensive metrics rank higher than expected. They are 45th in KenPom with a 98.7 adjusted defensive rating.
Down low, Dain Dainja dominates next to Mousa Cisse, and they can do even more for the Tigers. Dainja is the team leader in rebounding, averaging 6.5 per game, while Cisse is the block leader, averaging 1.4 per game. This frontcourt has some genuine talent and could be doing even more down low. The team as a whole is only averaging 34.4 rebounds per game.
Haggerty has also emerged as the best on-ball defender, leading the team in steals with 2.1 per game and being one of three players averaging at least one steal. The Tigers have the metrics for a great defense, but nothing significantly wows anyone in practice. Still, this defense should completely shut down a good but not great South Florida offense. The Bulls don't have anyone who can consistently slash through this defense.
USF's defense has been inconsistent and unimpressive this season. They allow 74.3 points per game, 43.5% from the field, and 31.4% from behind the arc. Their defensive rating on KenPom is also low: 108.3, which ranks them 197th in the country.
The frontcourt has been hit or miss down low. Reynolds leads the team in rebounding and blocks with 7.6 and 1.6 per game, respectively. Regarding their on-ball defense, four players average at least one steal, and Reid is the steals leader with 1.6 per game. The Bulls have struggled this season on defense and have their hands full against the talent on Memphis.
Why USF Will Cover The Spread/Win
USF's offense has been solid this season. They score 76.4 points per game, have a 45.8% field goal percentage, and a 33.2% three-point shooting percentage. They are also the 202nd-ranked offense on KenPom and have a 105.7 rating.
Only three Bulls players are scoring over double digits this season. Reynolds is the leading scorer, averaging 12.7 points per game, barely ahead of Reid, who averages 12.1. The team also averages 14.9 assists per game, and Reid is the team leader and engine of this offense, with 3.7 assists per game.
This offense is balanced and solid enough to overcome a defense like the Tigers'. They should find some success on this side of the court.
Final Memphis-USF Prediction & Pick
Memphis is the better team. USF has struggled to find consistency on offense and defense. Haggerty and Hunter are also easily the best players in this game. Memphis is red-hot at the American conference, and they'll extend their winning streak to eight in a row and cover on the road.
Final Memphis-USF Prediction & Pick: Memphis -7.5 (-106)
