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The San Diego Padres (72-56) host the New York Mets (66-61) for Game 1 of a crucial 4-game series at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Padres prediction and pick.
Mets-Padres Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Dylan Cease
Luis Severino (8-6) with a 3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 117 strikeouts, and 47 walks
Last Start: complete game, 9.0 innings, four hits, zero runs, one walk, and eight K's in the 4-0 win over the Miami Marlins.
2024 Road Splits: (3-4) with a 4.85 ERA, 19 walks, 59 K's in 11 starts. He pitches much better at Citi Field.
Dylan Cease (12-9) with a 3.46 ERA, 186 K's, 1.02 WHIP, and 50 walks in 26 total starts.
Last Start: 5.2 innings, three hits, three earned runs, five walks, and five K's in the 8-3 win over the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Home Splits: (5-5) with a 3.17 ERA at Petco Park. In 11 starts, he has 87 K's and only 20 walks.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Padres Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: +136
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+132)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
How to Watch Mets vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 pm ET/6:40 pm PT
TV: MLB.TV/MASN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
New York is coming off a big series win over the Baltimore Orioles. They capped off their last win as they walked it off thanks to a homer from Jesse Winker. Now just 1.5 games back of the Wild Card, the Mets understand how important this series is. The Padres are one of the hottest teams in baseball and the Mets can't afford to drop any further down the line.
The Mets are going with Luis Severino on the bump. He has been on a tear lately and is coming off a complete game performance. Severino is now facing a lineup that is scoring a lot of runs. He must find his stuff early because the Padres are good at dragging on long at-bats. The good news for Severino and the Mets is that Fernando Tatis Jr. has yet to return from the injured list.
Francisco Lindor is having a phenomenal season. Not only is he playing every day, he is getting on base at a high rate with 25 home runs, 73 RBIs, and a .815 OPS. He also has one of the highest WARs in baseball at 5.5. Pete Alonso is up to 27 homers on the year and newly acquired slugger Jesse Winker has 12 now on the campaign. Mark Vientos has 20 home runs and is batting .280 on the year with a .894 OPS. He is turning into a rising star for the Mets.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres might be coming off their worst game of the season against the Minnesota Twins. The good news is that they won the series, however, the Twins smashed 11 runs in the win, with 10 of them coming against Matt Waldron. Waldron was having an incredible rookie season showcasing the only knuckleball in the game. Unfortunately, the Twins read him like a book for 12 hits. He is struggling as of late and will need a massive bounce-back performance to keep his spot in the rotation.
Starting for the Padres tonight is Dylan Cease. The right-hander is second in the league in strikeouts with 186, but after today he will be leading the league. He is just one behind Chris Sale, who is set to face the Washington Nationals tomorrow night.
As a team, the Padres continue to lead the league in hits (1,157) and batting average (.265). Jackson Merrill is playing out of his mind right now. He is the new betting favorite to win NL ROY over Pirates Paul Skenes. On the season, Merrill is batting .291 which is 17th in baseball. Furthermore, he has 17 homers, 71 RBIs, 21 drawn walks, and an OPS of .813.
Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar continue to play very well also. Their clutch hitting is a big reason why the Padres are only four games out from the best record in baseball.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick
This will be a great pitching matchup. I expect the Padres to bounce back and win this game, but taking the Mets to cover the spread on the road, along with the under at 7.5 is the call to make.
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Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick: Mets +1.5 (-164), Under 7.5 (-118)
