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UFC Tampa is beginning to heat up and we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this next bout taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. UFC veteran Michael Johnson will return to face Morocco's rising talent Ottman Azaitar. Check out our UFC odds series for our Johnson-Azaitar prediction and pick.
Michael Johnson (22-19) has gone 14-15 during his extensive UFC career since 2010. He's alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, posting a 3-2 record and winning his most recent bout over Darrius Flowers via unanimous decision. He'll look to continue shattering expectations as the betting favorite in this one. Johnson stands 5'10” with a 73.5-inch reach.
Ottman Azaitar (13-2) is 2-2 in his UFC career since debuting in 2019. After back-to-back wins to start his tenure, he's lost his last two consecutive bouts to Matt Frevola and Francisco Prado. Still, he has a flare for the dramatic and will be a live underdog throughout the entirety of this fight. Azaitar stands 5'8″ with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Tampa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Tampa Odds: Michael Johnson-Ottman Azaitar Odds
Michael Johnson: -205
Ottman Azaitar: +170
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Michael Johnson Will Win
Michael Johnson has been up and down over his last few fights, but with each appearance we've seen a more confident version of him fighting more like a younger version of himself. Throughout his career, Johnson has always been known as one of the best pure boxers in the division and while he took a step back a few years ago, he's certainly made his way back to a high level capable of breaking through into the rankings. He's also one of the toughest fighters the UFC has to offer and he'll certainly be a tough out against an opponent that relies on his knockout power to finish a fight.
Michael Johnson being the most unpredictable fighter in the world. pic.twitter.com/ShPJ7dEXZ1
— UFCFightTalk🍻 (@UFCFightTalk) April 2, 2024
Michael Johnson has lost by submission nine times throughout his career and has never been known as the fiercest grappler. However, he boasts an impressive 81% takedown defense through almost 30 fights in the UFC and it doesn't seem likely that he'll give up his position very easily in this one. Expect Johnson to continue moving forward with his best weapon in the jab as he looks to walk Azaitar down and compile the punishment in the later rounds.
Why Ottman Azaitar Will Win
Both of Azaitar's last two fights have ended in a knockout within the first round, but it's been a testament to his willingness to stand and trade with dangerous finishers in the division. With nine of his 13 pro wins coming by way of knockout, Azaitar certainly has confidence in his power and ability to reach his opponent's chin before they get to him. His last five total fights have ended inside of the first round and just one of his professional bouts has seen the distance.
#UFCTampa #FreePicks Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar#Bet: Johnson to Win, -210
Johnson has glaringly better experience both in UFC and going the distance, as well as superior defensive responsibility in a matchup of concerning chins.#GamblingX #MMAtwitter #UFC stats comp: pic.twitter.com/NL0hUwQjGf
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) December 11, 2024
Ottman Azaitar will have his work cut out for him in trying to close the distance against an experienced veteran like Michael Johnson, but he's shown a fearlessness in the past that could work in his favor during this one. Azaitar is very quick with his combinations and he's very athletic in closing the distance, so he could have a slight advantage over Johnson if he's able to close the distance quickly and engage with his overhand shots.
Final Michael Johnson-Ottman Azaitar Prediction & Pick
This should be another fun fight between a veteran and a relative newcomer, but both men are susceptible to knocking the other out and has displayed some questionable chins in the past. Azaitar is working to rebound following back-to-back knockout losses while Michael Johnson is working to build some momentum following his most recent win.
In terms of the striking, we have to give the advantage to Michael Johnson due to his distance management and ability to control opponents with his jab. He's very intent on establishing the jab early and we could see it becoming a problem for Azaitar throughout this fight.
Still, Ottman Azaitar stands a great chance to win via knockout and his ability to catch Johnson off-guard will be paramount during this fight. However, for our final prediction, we like Michael Johnson to ride out a decision win here as he offers more striking output and wins this fight on the back of his volume striking.
Final Michael Johnson-Ottman Azaitar Prediction & Pick: Michael Johnson (-205); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-160)
