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UFC 302 is live from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for the next fight taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. UFC veteran and jiu jitsu master Mickey Gall will return against the highly-touted newcomer Bassil Hafez from Philly. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gall-Hafez prediction and pick.
Mickey Gall (7-5) has gone 6-5 during his UFC career since 2016. He's gone 2-3 over his last five fights, but he's coming into this one off two-straight losses to Alex Morono and Mike Malott, which ended in a first-round KO. He'll be searching for his first win since 2021 as he welcomes Hafez to his second fight as the veteran underdog. Gall stands 6'2″ with a 74-inch reach.
Bassil Hafez (8-4-1) will be making his second UFC appearance following a loss to Jack Della Maddalena in his debut. He made his debut against a top-10 opponent on short notice after the initial matchup fell through and managed a split decision on the judges' scorecards, many of who thought the decision could have gone in his favor. He'll look to impress once again as the big betting favorite this time. Hafez stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 302 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 302 Odds: Mickey Gall-Bassil Hafez Odds
Mickey Gall: +285
Bassil Hafez: -350
Over 1.5 rounds: -185
Under 1.5 rounds: +155
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Why Mickey Gall Will Win
Mickey Gall is best known for his jiu jitsu skills inside of the cage and he's notched all six of his UFC wins by way of submission. He's been a seasoned black belt for many years now and he's done a great job of transitioning his skills into the octagon. On the ground, he's extremely flexible and can twist his way into awkward positions for the opponent. He doesn't typically find his way to the mat via the takedown, but instead likes to tie his opponents up and force trips along the fence. He may be at a strength disadvantage against an imposing guy like Hafez, so look for Mickey Gall to get creative in searching for his openings here.
Mickey Gall has never been submitted in his professional career, so despite Hafez' own BJJ black belt, he should have the slight advantage when it comes to defending himself on the ground and squeezing out of submission attempts. Hafez is very imposing with his ground-and-pound, so Gall will have to avoid getting stuck beneath him, despite his confidence in his submissions from the back. Expect Gall to start this fight slow and try to wear on Hafez into the later rounds as he tries to give himself a chance on the scorecards.
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Why Bassil Hafez Will Win
Bassil Hafez stepped-in on just a few days notice to face who could arguably be the best boxer in the welterweight division with Jack Della Maddalena. Hafez stood toe-to-toe with the contender and threw everything he could right back at him. What was even more impressive was Hafez' superior gas tank, willingness to march forward, and his scary ability to eat punches and keep walking. He's extremely skilled on the ground and has four of his wins by way of submission, also boasting a BJJ black belt. On the ground, Hafez could see success with his unrivaled strength and ability to smother opponents into submission for his top positioning.
Bassil Hafez also impressed a lot of people with his willingness to stand across and box with Della Maddalena. Most of his previous opponents would dance around his crisp boxing, but Bassil Hafez took initiative and brought the fight to his opponent. With the odds being where they are, oddsmakers are already taking serious stock into his debut fight and we should see an even more improved version of him following a full fight camp.
Final Mickey Gall-Bassil Hafez Prediction & Pick
This fight will be very interesting from a grappling perspective as both men are extremely proficient black belts on the ground. Mickey Gall is the craftier of the two in chasing creative submissions and contorting his body, but Bassil Hafez is the much stronger fighter of the two and could use his physically imposing strength to put Gall in some bad positions.
It'll also be interesting to see how both of these fighters fare in the stand-up striking and who has the edge here. Mickey Gall has been tagged in the past on the feet, but he's much better at controlling distance at this point of his career. Hafez, on the other hand, has shown an incredible chin and will eat a few punches to land his own damaging blows.
For our prediction, we're going to have to side with Bassil Hafez to get the win here. He's a much fresher fighter and I think his strength advantage will prove to be a big factor. Look for him to control this fight from top position as he finds the eventual submission or TKO via ground-and-pound.
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Final Mickey Gall-Bassil Hafez Prediction & Pick: Bassil Hafez (-350); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-185)
