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Minnesota and Penn State have struggled this season in Big Ten play and desperately need a win to get back on track. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Minnesota-Penn State prediction and pick.
Minnesota is 11-11, with zero notable non-conference wins. However, they have quality conference wins against Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon. They have also suffered significant losses against Wake Forest, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Michigan State. Dawson Garcia is one of the best scorers in college basketball, but he needs more help, especially if the Golden Gophers have any chance of getting a win.
Penn State is 13-9 and has no notable non-conference wins, but in Big Ten play, it has quality wins against Purdue, Northwestern, and Rutgers. It also has losses against Clemson, Indiana, Illinois, Oregon, Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the biggest standout on a balanced Penn State offense. This would be a giant win for the Nittany Lions, allowing them to claw back into respectability and potentially earn a Tournament bid.
Here are the Minnesota-Penn State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Minnesota-Penn State Odds
Minnesota: +7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +275
Penn State: -7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +350
Over: 142.5 (-110)
Under: 142.5 (-110)
How to Watch Minnesota vs. Penn State
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: BTN
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Why Minnesota Will Cover The Spread/Win
Minnesota's defense has been the opposite of its offense and a bright spot. They allow 69 points per game, 43.4% from the field, and 34.2% from behind the arc. The defense is 93rd in KenPom with a 1021.1 rating.
Dawson Garcia is the best player the Gophers have in the frontcourt. He leads the team in rebounds with 7.1 per game and is second in blocks behind Parker Fox, who leads the team with 1.2 per game. Femi Odukale is then the steals leader, averaging 1.4 per game. Minnesota has the defense to slow down the Nittany Lions offense, but with this game being on the road, it gets much harder to do that consistently.
Penn State's defense is ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten this season. They allow 72.6 points per game, 44.5% from the field, and 33.8% from behind the arc. They are also 74th in defensive efficiency with a 100.7 rating. The rebounding has been suspect, with Yanic Konan Niederhauser leading the way with 6.2 per game. He is also the team leader in blocks with 2.1 per game.
They have been solid on the perimeter and with their on-ball defense, with five different Nittany Lions averaging at least one steal. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the team leader in steals, with two per game. The Nittany Lions should find some success on this side of the court because Minnesota has done nothing impressive on offense. If Penn State slows down Garcia, it will be tough for Minnesota to do much.
Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Minnesota's offense has been awful and is easily the worst offense in the Big Ten. They score 68.8 points per game, have a 44.7% field goal percentage, and a 32.5% three-point shooting percentage. They also have the 122nd-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom with a 109.3 rating. Only three Golden Gophers are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Garcia has emerged as the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 20.1 points per game.
Regarding ball movement, the Golden Gophers have been solid. They are averaging 16 assists per game and are 65th in all of college basketball. Lu'Cye Patterson is the team's assist leader, with 3.6 per game, but Odukale is right there, too, with 3.5 per game. This offense relies so much on Garcia, but they should be able to score because Penn State has a defense near the bottom of the Big Ten.
Penn State's offense is highly balanced and one of the best in the Big Ten. They score 82.3 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 48.5%, and have a three-point percentage of 34.6%. They are a top-50 offense on KenPom, with a 115.5 offensive rating.
The balance for this offense is a giant X-factor, with five different Nittany Lions averaging over double digits. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the main engine behind this offense with 14.1 points per game, and he leads the team with 7.8 assists per game. Penn State is also averaging 16.7 assists per game as a team, which is 40th in the country. This offense has too much balance for Minnesota to contain. In this matchup, Penn State should start a scoring avalanche on Minnesota at home.
Final Minnesota-Penn State Prediction & Pick
Minnesota has a defense that can travel, and they have the best player in this game, Garcia, who is unguardable. However, Penn State has the better team; the balance is the difference. Baldwin Jr. should lead Penn State to a win at home and get back on track in conference play after three straight losses.
Final Minnesota-Penn State Prediction & Pick: Penn State -7.5 (-120)
