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The Oakland Athletics take on the Houston Astros. Check out our MLB odds series for our Athletics Astros prediction and pick.
Cole Irvin goes to the hill for the Athletics, while Jose Urquidy gets the start for the Astros.
Cole Irvin's talent and consistency are lost in Oakland. The pitching Irvin provides would be hugely valuable to a team in the American League wild card hunt — there are several teams in the mix for that prize — but on the A's, Irvin is anonymous because the team surrounding him is so bad.
There are two whopping facts about Irvin you should know: First, his season ERA has never been higher than 3.58 since April 19. He has given up more than three earned runs in a start only twice since the first weekend of the season back in early April.
Second: Despite Irvin's obviously consistent quality, the A's are 1-10 in the last 11 games he has started. It's crazy and improbable, but true. It's wise to predict that the A's will lose when Irvin starts, but it's also wise to expect Irvin to limit the opposition. He simply doesn't get much of any run support.
Jose Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. His last 10 starts paint a relatively accurate portrait of his whole season. Urquidy will go through clusters of mediocre starts, and then find his rhythm in several starts, but the good and mediocre periods never remain permanent. Let's break down these past 10 starts more precisely:
In a five-start sequence from May 17-June 8, Urquidy gave up 17 runs on 42 hits in 26 2/3 innings pitched. In a five-start sequence from June 14-July 8, he gave up nine runs on 16 hits in 33 innings pitched. Urquidy has great moments, but those moments don't represent a majority of his starts. Seven of his 16 starts have yielded no more than one run, but eight of his 16 starts have surrendered three or more runs, and five of his starts have yielded at least four earned runs. Urquidy is an example of a pitcher who has a high ceiling and a low floor. Raising the floor is what he needs to achieve as he tries to improve his career trajectory.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Athletics-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Athletics-Astros Odds
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (-118)
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
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Why The Athletics Could Cover the Spread
Cole Irvin is a very good pitcher who consistently gives the A's what they need. He doesn't get run support most nights, but against Jose Urquidy, whose ERA is three-fourths of a run higher, Irvin might have found a matchup in which Oakland's hitters can give him five runs. If Oakland does score five, Irvin is likely to make that stand up and enable the A's to cover the spread on the road in Houston.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
After winning the series against the A's this past weekend in Oakland, the Astros are in position to win yet another series against their divisional competitor. The gulf between these two teams is vast, and even though Cole Irvin is a good pitcher, Oakland's hitters are not likely to get hot against Urquidy. Houston can win this game 3-1 and win on the run line.
Final Athletics-Astros Prediction & Pick
Cole Irvin and Jose Urquidy are good pitchers. Oakland has a light-hitting lineup, and Houston lacks Yordan Alvarez. That means the under is a good play.
Final Athletics-Astros Prediction & Pick: Under 8
